- 3. The initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average stubbornly refuses to go down any further. It has essentially gone sidewa If you go back and look at the data from the last 45 years, the current level is typical of recessions. Earnings Take a Hit No, not business earnings, which seem to be holding up, but personal earnings. Average hourly earnings dropped 0.1% in June, s Rosenberg notes is a 1-in-50 event. The trend is downward, with annual growth of less than 1.7%. Average hours worked were als My friend and Maine fishing buddy Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses, has pro survey, and there was not much to cheer about from a future employment perspective. Over the next 3 months, 8 percent of the b plan to reduce employment (up 1 point), and 10 percent plan to create new jobs (down 4 points), yielding a planning to create new jobs, unchanged from May and only the second positive reading in 20 months - but barely so.
- 4. From Dunk's email: "Since January, 2008, the seasonally adjusted average change in employment per firm has been negative in e seasonally adjusted loss of 0.3 workers per firm reported in June for the prior three month period. Most firms did not change empl points from May) increased average employment by 3.4 employees, but 15% (down 5 points) reduced their workforces by an aver creation" still hasn't crossed the 0 line in the small business sector. Government (including health care and education) and manuf activity) has been providing what few jobs are created, weak given the magnitude of employment loss during the recession. And n temporary Census jobs will make the picture look more bleak, although more accurate. A few more every month for 3 years to re-employ 8 million workers who lost their jobs and another 125,000 a month to keep up with population A few more data points from this week, and then let's look at some of the implications. The numbers from the Conference Board su total of people planning to buy a major appliance is at an almost 16-year low. Car sales were low last month, and the survey says t plans to buy a car are down from 6% to 3.7%. In fact, in almost all categories plans to buy were down. Which makes sense, as 17% incomes are decreasing. New home inventory is back up to 8.5 months of supply. As noted above, single-family sales hit an all-time low, as anyone who wan did so in order to get the government incentive. Just as with Cash for Clunkers, all we did was bring buying forward; we did not cre buyers, at least not in any significant numbers. Money Supply Concerns After the explosion in the money supply by the Fed in the depths of the Great Recession, growth in the money supply has gone fla at the fact that M-3 (the broadest measure of money supply) has turned negative for the first time in many decades. Look at the ad base, below.
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Showing posts with label 2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2013. Show all posts
Friday, December 6, 2013
This week we are going to examine the headline data we all see and then take a look for what most observers do not see. Then we'll try to think about what it all really means. With employment, housing, and the ISM numbers, there is a lot to cover. And this letter will print out longer than usual, as there are a lot of charts. Warning: sharp objects from the vicinity and pour yourself your favorite adult beverage. This does not make for fun reading. But first, a very quick three-paragraph commercial.
Monday, August 5, 2013
The Blackstone Group L.P. (BX) has been in the news recently as the company is in talks with Deutsche Bank (DB) to sell ~$270M in "Rent-Backed Securities" to numerous investors. This will boost the firm's net working capital and help monetize a small part of its $64B Real Estate AUM.
My friends, the rothschilds own this bank and damn can't lose when you got the rothschilds at the helm, BX is a safe longterm hold, being that this bank is in the UNited Kingdom, they do not have to deal with the tough regulations our banks in America have to deal with, and with that being said this bank has been making deals with China for quite some time, with the recovery of the hosing sector in place and Blackstone's move to shell out some of their real-estate securities allows for a more expansive future progressive path aimed at developing the economical model with safe investments in energy like natural gas, as we see Bllackstone group's 2 billion dollar investment in CQP , Cheniere Energy Partners L.P., and with the strong deals with the Chinese , Blackstone group is a winner for the long-term, winner winner chicken dinner ... The Blackstone Group L.P. (BX) has been in the news recently as the company is in talks with Deutsche Bank (DB) to sell ~$270M in "Rent-Backed Securities" to numerous investors. This will boost the firm's net working capital and help monetize a small part of its $64B Real Estate AUM. In the past couple of years, Blackstone has been snapping up residential homes, turning them into rent-income assets. Apart from real estate, Blackstone operates in four other businesses: Private Equity, Hedge Funds, Credit, and Financial Advisory. OVERVIEW
After Hours
$
22.86
Change
0.00 0.00%
Volume
6,888
Aug 5, 2013, 4:56 p.m.
Real time quotes
Today's close
$ 22.86
Change
-0.18 -0.78%
Day low
Day high
$22.56
$23.21
Open: 23.10
52 week low
52 week high
$13.04
$24.31
Market cap
$12.80B
Average volume
4.97M
P/E ratio
38.79
Rev. per Employee
$2.41M
EPS
0.59
Dividend
0.23
Div yield
4.02%The Blackstone Group L.P. is an American-based multinational private equity, investment banking, alternative asset management and financial services corporation based in New York City. As the largest alternative investment firm in the world, Blackstone specializes in private equity, credit and hedge fund investment strategies, as well as financial advisory services, such as mergers and acquisitions, restructurings and reorganizations, and private placements.
Blackstone's private equity business has been one of the largest investors in leveraged buyout transactions over the last decade, while its real estate business has actively acquired commercial real estate. Since its inception, Blackstone has completed investments in such notable companies as Hilton Worldwide, Equity Office Properties, Republic Services, AlliedBarton, United Biscuits, Freescale Semiconductor, Vivint and Travelport.
Blackstone was founded in 1985 as a mergers and acquisitions boutique by Peter G. Peterson and Stephen A. Schwarzman, who had previously worked together at Lehman Brothers, Kuhn, Loeb Inc. Over the course of two decades, Blackstone has evolved into one of the world's largest private equity investment firms. In 2007, Blackstone completed a $4 billion initial public offering to become one of the first major private equity firms to list shares in its management company on a public exchange. Blackstone is headquartered at 345 Park Avenue in New York City, with eight additional offices in the United States, as well as offices in London, Paris, Düsseldorf, Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Mumbai, and Dubai.
Business segments
Blackstone is organized into four business segments:
Corporate private equity - Management of Blackstone's family of private equity funds investing in leveraged buyout transactions;
Investment Banking and Financial Advisory - Includes Blackstone's mergers and acquisitions advisory services, restructuring and reorganization advisory services and fund placement services for alternative investment funds;
Marketable Alternative Asset Management - Management of Blackstone's funds of hedge funds, mezzanine funds, senior debt vehicles, and closed-end mutual funds; and
Real Estate - Management of Blackstone's family of real estate investment funds.
Blackstone's private equity business has been one of the largest investors in leveraged buyout transactions over the last decade, while its real estate business has actively acquired commercial real estate. Since its inception, Blackstone has completed investments in such notable companies as Hilton Worldwide, Equity Office Properties, Republic Services, AlliedBarton, United Biscuits, Freescale Semiconductor, Vivint and Travelport.
Blackstone was founded in 1985 as a mergers and acquisitions boutique by Peter G. Peterson and Stephen A. Schwarzman, who had previously worked together at Lehman Brothers, Kuhn, Loeb Inc. Over the course of two decades, Blackstone has evolved into one of the world's largest private equity investment firms. In 2007, Blackstone completed a $4 billion initial public offering to become one of the first major private equity firms to list shares in its management company on a public exchange. Blackstone is headquartered at 345 Park Avenue in New York City, with eight additional offices in the United States, as well as offices in London, Paris, Düsseldorf, Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Mumbai, and Dubai.
Business segments
Blackstone is organized into four business segments:
Corporate private equity - Management of Blackstone's family of private equity funds investing in leveraged buyout transactions;
Investment Banking and Financial Advisory - Includes Blackstone's mergers and acquisitions advisory services, restructuring and reorganization advisory services and fund placement services for alternative investment funds;
Marketable Alternative Asset Management - Management of Blackstone's funds of hedge funds, mezzanine funds, senior debt vehicles, and closed-end mutual funds; and
Real Estate - Management of Blackstone's family of real estate investment funds.
Ex dividend date
7/25/13
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Saturday, August 3, 2013
LINC ENERGY LTD ASX:LNC ENERGY soared on Thursday, a day after the firm announced it was sitting on potentially large resources of shale oil in South Australia; Two respected independent consultants estimated Linc's 100-percent owned Arckaringa Basin could hold between 103 billion and 233 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in formations comparable to liquids-rich shale plays in the United States.
LINC ENERGY LTD
ASX:LNC
ENERG
Y
* Estimate of potentially large shale oil, gas potential in South Australia
* Analysts say Linc shale potential highly speculative
* Linc CEO expects early well production by end of 2014
* Linc seeks partner to develop shale asset
* Shares hit 18-month high (Recasts, updates with CEO, analyst comments)
By Rebekah Kebede and Sonali Paul
PERTH/MELBOURNE, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Shares in Linc Energy soared on Thursday, a day after the firm announced it was sitting on potentially large resources of shale oil in South Australia, although some experts urged caution since the estimate is at very early stage.
Two respected independent consultants estimated Linc's 100-percent owned Arckaringa Basin could hold between 103 billion and 233 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in formations comparable to liquids-rich shale plays in the United States.
But as the share price shot up by more than 30 percent at one stage on Thursday, and Australian media trumpeted the "$20 trillion shale oil find", some urged caution on the shale play in the little explored Arckaringa Basin.
"It's at a very early stage... it's a theoretical play," said Peter Strachan, an analyst with Stock Analysis in Perth.
The huge bump in Linc's share price even took the company's chief executive, Peter Bond, by surprise.
"We didn't expect it to go this nuts," Bond told Reuters, while adding that he chalked up the gains to the company being "massively underpriced."
"A lot of what you are seeing is a re-rating of the company based on people starting to understand that the assets we have are far better than what they have been giving us value for," he said.
Bond, Linc's largest shareholder, owns 39 percent of the company's shares.
HOW MUCH IS RECOVERABLE?
At the heart of excitement around Linc's new find were figures displayed prominently on the first page of the company's announcement: 103 to 233 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
But the estimates are what are called "unrisked prospective resources", which give no indication as to how easily the reservoirs can be tapped or whether oil and gas can be profitably produced.
Some analysts zeroed in on another estimate -- the 3.5 billion barrels that are likely to be recoverable -- that was on a chart on the third page of its release and which they said gave a more accurate picture.
"I think the industry is becoming ill-disciplined in talking about volumes of oil that are in place (which) is so different to what is actually recoverable," Johan Hedstrom, an energy analyst with Bell Potter Securities in Sydney, said.
Linc's Bond said media reports perhaps should have focused on the likely recoverable figure but defended the announcement.
"Most of them don't know the work we've done," Bond said, adding that Linc is confident there is a large amount that is recoverable.
"How much is recoverable is always the question. Is it 3 billion barrels or is it 203 billion barrels? Even if it's 3 or 4 billion barrels... that's a massive find in this part of the world. No matter how you cut it, it's still a massive outcome," Bond said.
Linc has appointed Barclays Capital to help it find a partner with experience in shale drilling and the company expects to announce a partner in the next six months, Bond said.
Linc's shares soared to a high of A$2.83 on Thursday and last traded up 23 percent at A$2.67.
Its market value has more than quadrupled over two months as Linc, mainly known for its efforts to develop underground coal gas-to-liquids projects, recently started producing oil in the United States.
IT'S NOT JUST THE ROCKS
Even if Linc ends up finding huge amounts of oil and gas in the Arckaringa Basin, it will still face huge challenges, shared by other developers in Australia's fledgling shale industry.
Bond said he expects production could begin by the end of 2014, but some analysts said commercialisation, even in ideal circumstances, would take about five years.
Geoff Barker, partner at Resource Investment Strategy Consultants (RISC) in Perth, said even if the geology was right, the cost issue was formidable in Australia.
"Even if you've got rocks which have the necessary conditions for success, the big challenge we have is one of cost. Our cost structures are very high."
Costs can be several times what U.S. shale developers pay -- drilling a shale well in the U.S. costs about $10 million, while in Australia prices are 50 percent higher at about $15 million.
And unlike the United States, where a "shale gas revolution" turned it from an importer to a prospective exporter in a matter of a few years, Australia has little infrastructure in the far-flung locations where most shale exploration is occurring.
But high risks can mean high rewards.
"There's really two times when global oil and gas companies...come to large resources like this. Firstly it's at the early stage, where they pay a smaller amount to take on a higher amount of risk, but the reward is potentially there.... Or they pay a fortune when it's completely de-risked," said Ian Davies, managing director of Senex Energy, an Australian company which also has shale acreage. (Editing by Ed Davies)
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Monday, July 22, 2013
Shire plc (NASDAQ: SHPG [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]), the global specialty biopharmaceutical company, today announced that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the prescription medication Vyvanse^® (lisdexamfetamine dimesylate) Capsules, (CII) as a maintenance treatment in children and adolescents with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Vyvanse is currently approved as a maintenance treatment in adults with ADHD. With this new approval, Vyvanse becomes the only stimulant approved for maintenance treatment in children, adolescents, and adults (patients ages 6 and above) with ADHD. Jefferies reiterated its Buy rating on Shire PLC (NASDAQ: SHPG [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]), but lowered its price target from $117.00 to $112.00/ Barclays Upgrades Shire Plc to Overweight on Growth Profile
UPDATE: Shire's Vyvanse Approved in US for Children with ADHD
Tickers: SHPG
Shire plc (NASDAQ: SHPG [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]), the global specialty biopharmaceutical company, today announced that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the prescription medication Vyvanse^® (lisdexamfetamine dimesylate) Capsules, (CII) as a maintenance treatment in children and adolescents with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Vyvanse is currently approved as a maintenance treatment in adults with ADHD. With this new approval, Vyvanse becomes the only stimulant approved for maintenance treatment in children, adolescents, and adults (patients ages 6 and above) with ADHD.
The approval is based on results from a 32-week study: 26 weeks of open-label treatment with Vyvanse followed by a 6-week randomized withdrawal phase. The study was designed to evaluate the continued efficacy of Vyvanse in children and adolescents (aged 6 to 17 years). A significantly lower proportion of treatment failures occurred among Vyvanse patients (15.8%) compared to placebo (67.5%) at end point of the randomized withdrawal period, showing that significantly more patients treated with Vyvanse maintained ADHD symptom control compared with placebo.
Vyvanse is a Schedule II controlled substance. CNS Stimulants (amphetamines and methylphenidate-containing products) have a high potential for abuse and dependence. Assess the risk of abuse prior to prescribing and monitor for signs of abuse and dependence.
To evaluate the efficacy of Vyvanse for maintenance treatment in children and adolescents with ADHD, Shire elected to conduct a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized withdrawal clinical trial. In this design, patients who respond to a treatment are randomized to continue receiving that treatment or placebo. Using the proportion of patients experiencing symptom relapse as a primary outcome, this type of study in patients with ADHD can be used to demonstrate long-term efficacy in lieu of conducting a long-term, placebo-controlled, parallel-group study. The utility of this design is that the period of placebo exposure, with the potential for worsening of ADHD symptoms, is relatively short.
The double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized withdrawal study was conducted in 276 children and adolescents aged 6 to 17 with ADHD. Of these patients, 236 participated in a preceding study and 40 directly enrolled. The study consisted of 4 phases:
o 4-week, open-label, dose-optimization phase in which patients received Vyvanse 30 mg/day, 50 mg/day, or 70 mg/day. Eligible subjects started on Vyvanse 30 mg/day and could be titrated in weekly increments of 20 mg until an optimal dose was reached (up to a maximum of 70 mg/day) o 20-week, open-label, maintenance phase o 2-week, open-label, fixed-dose phase in which patients were discontinued if they required further dose adjustments, experienced unacceptable tolerability, or had an Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Rating Scale, Version IV (ADHD-RS-IV) total score >22 or Clinical Global Impression Severity (CGI-S) score ≥3. Patients who maintained treatment response entered the randomized withdrawal phase. o 6-week, double-blind, randomized withdrawal phase in which patients either received ongoing treatment with the same dose of Vyvanse (N=78) or were switched to placebo (N=79).
The primary outcome measure was the proportion of patients who met criteria for relapse of ADHD symptoms (treatment failure) at end point during the double-blind, randomized withdrawal phase. The end point measurement was defined as the last post-randomization treatment week at which a valid ADHD-RS Total Score and CGI-S were observed. Treatment failure was defined as a ≥50% increase (worsening) in the ADHD-RS Total Score and a ≥2-point increase in the CGI-S score compared to scores at entry into the double-blind, randomized withdrawal phase. On the primary end point, significantly fewer patients met criteria for symptom relapse with Vyvanse (15.8%) versus placebo (67.5%) (P<.001).
During the 26-week open-label phase, 12 patients (4.3%) reported serious adverse events (SAEs), and 45 patients (16.3%) reported treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) that resulted in Vyvanse discontinuation. During the randomized withdrawal phase, no SAEs were reported in the Vyvanse group, no patients in the Vyvanse group discontinued due to a TEAE, and 1 patient in the placebo group discontinued due to a TEAE. In addition, 39.7% (31/78) of patients receiving Vyvanse and 25.3% (20/79) on placebo reported TEAEs. The most common TEAEs (≥2%) reported in the Vyvanse treatment group during the randomized withdrawal phase included nasopharyngitis, headache, abdominal pain upper, oropharyngeal pain, decreased appetite, vomiting, weight decrease, abdominal pain, accidental overdose, aggression, cough, nausea and rhinitis.
Patients receiving Vyvanse demonstrated a moderate increase in mean pulse rate (~5 beats per minute) and blood pressure (~2 mm Hg systolic and diastolic blood pressure) between baseline and end point of the randomized withdrawal period. Patients treated with Vyvanse experienced a mean decrease in body weight of about 2 kg during the 26-week open-label period. Mean weight tended to increase in patients who switched to placebo during the randomized withdrawal phase. There were no deaths reported during the trial. The safety profile seen in this study was consistent with that of other studies of Vyvanse, and no new clinically relevant safety signals were associated with abrupt discontinuation of Vyvanse.
Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/13/05/3549758/update-shires-vyvanse-approved-in-us-for-children-with-adhd#ixzz2Zo8Vo8lfUPDATE: Deutsche Bank Raises PT on Shire Following Investor Dinner
Tickers: SHPG
In a report published Friday, Deutsche Bank analyst Greg Poole reiterated a Buy rating on Shire (NASDAQ: SHPG [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]), and raised the price target from $101.00 to $109.00.
In the report, Deutsche Bank noted, “We hosted a small investor dinner with Shire management this week, where new CEO Dr. Flemming Ornskov offered a comprehensive, updated view of the company – having now been at the company for nearly six months. In summary, while Shire faces a number of challenges, we again like what we heard from the new CEO. Dr. Ornskov's highest priority is to enhance Shire's long term growth rate, by 1) maximizing its current product portfolio, 2) marshalling resources behind the most promising pipeline opportunities, and 3) executing ‘very smart' business development and M&A.”
Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/13/05/3637392/update-deutsche-bank-raises-pt-on-shire-following-invest#ixzz2Zo8Clb6F
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