Showing posts with label twin-c vanilla spilla. Show all posts
Showing posts with label twin-c vanilla spilla. Show all posts

Friday, March 25, 2016

Cannabis Science and the War on Drugs. The real problem is that cannabis is a drug with far too many medical applications. We know there's strong evidence for cannabis working for the following conditions: Depression Insomnia Nausea Severe Epilepsy Pain Inflammation That's a big chunk of the pharmaceutical industry's bread and butter... Not to mention, many of the pharmaceutical treatments for these conditions have nasty side effects. Take severe epilepsy. A cannabinoid extracted from marijuana, called CBD, treats it very well. The prescription answer to this condition is often heavy sedatives, like Xanax. And they give that stuff to kids, who eventually become addicted to it. (If you're interested in learning more about CBD, watch this seven-minute CNN documentary.) CBD works so well that shares of a pharmaceutical company called GW Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: GWPH) spiked almost 100% this month after announcing positive clinical results on a CBD drug. And it's not a small company - it has a market cap of $1.72 billion.

Cannabis Science and the War on Drugs

By Charles T. Graham on March 25, 2016

Dear Early Investor,

Since Richard Nixon kicked off the war on drugs in 1971, more than $1 trillion has been spent on the effort. 

An estimated 45 million arrests have been made in the U.S.

And the result? Drugs are still widely available, and profits for the cartels have never been higher.

A primary consequence of the war on drugs is that America has the highest incarceration rate in the world. With only 5% of the Earth's population, the U.S. holds 25% of all prisoners.

It's all a stunning misuse of taxpayer dollars. It blocks important research that needs to happen. And the human cost is incalculable.

It's simply no longer a justifiable battle. Especially once you recognize the political agendas that drive policy. 


The Drug War's Disturbing Roots

Back in 1994, writer Dan Baum interviewed Nixon's domestic policy adviser, John Ehrlichman, about the war on drugs.

Ehrlichman was instrumental in launching the war. (He also spent time in jail for Watergate crimes.) And what he had to say is shocking. Here's an excerpt from Baum's recent article in Harper's (emphasis mine). 

    "You want to know what this was really all about?" he asked with the bluntness of a man who, after public disgrace and a stretch in federal prison, had little left to protect. "The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the anti-war left and black people. You understand what I'm saying?"

    "We knew we couldn't make it illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did."
I can't imagine a much more damning indictment of the war on drugs. From the start, the whole "movement" was a political attack on certain segments of the population.

Thankfully, things are slowly turning around. States around the U.S. are legalizing marijuana at an increasing pace. And there's a growing worldwide movement that favors treating drug users for addiction over locking them up.

The Washington Post's recent headline about the policy debate reads, "Top medical experts say we should decriminalize all drugs and maybe go even further."

When society appears to be on the cusp of a change such as this, paying attention can pay dividends down the road. If the war on marijuana and other drugs truly is crumbling, the impacts will be more far-reaching than most expect.

For example, medical cannabis is already beginning to disrupt the pharmaceutical space. As I'll explain, it has the potential to take significant market share. 

Change = Opportunity

Because marijuana has been illegal for so long, it's been very difficult for scientists to study. 

The DEA classifies marijuana as a Schedule 1 drug. In its world, it's a drug with "no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse." It says it's worse than heroin, crack and meth, which are all considered Schedule 2 drugs (with some legitimate medical applications).

Being a Schedule 1 drug makes it nearly impossible to get government funding to study the medical uses of cannabis in the U.S. But researchers are finding a way. Mostly overseas, or with rare special permission in the U.S., the science is ongoing and extremely promising.

The real problem is that cannabis is a drug with far too many medical applications. 

We know there's strong evidence for cannabis working for the following conditions:

  • Depression
  • Insomnia
  • Nausea
  • Severe Epilepsy
  • Pain
  • Inflammation
That's a big chunk of the pharmaceutical industry's bread and butter...

Not to mention, many of the pharmaceutical treatments for these conditions have nasty side effects.

Take severe epilepsy. A cannabinoid extracted from marijuana, called CBD, treats it very well. 

The prescription answer to this condition is often heavy sedatives, like Xanax. And they give that stuff to kids, who eventually become addicted to it. (If you're interested in learning more about CBD, watch this seven-minute CNN documentary.) 

CBD works so well that shares of a pharmaceutical company called GW Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: GWPH) spiked almost 100% this month after announcing positive clinical results on a CBD drug. And it's not a small company - it has a market cap of $1.72 billion.

Regular readers know I'm extremely bullish on the legal marijuana business. Obviously, the medical sector is especially interesting to me.

But to be honest, I haven't figured out the best way to invest in the medical side. I've looked into a few stocks (like GW Pharmaceuticals). But I don't know enough about how strong their patent protection is. Need to do more research. 

I've also found few startups doing breeding, which is important for medical applications due to the use of specialized strains to produce specific compounds for various conditions.

Friday, June 12, 2015

Russia's currency has stabilized along with the price of oil, a critical development. Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEARCA:RSX) is a buy.

 Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEARCA:RSX) is a buy. The holdings that comprise the ETF are significantly undervalued based on fundamentals and are poised to benefit in the near-term from positive trends in "problem" areas. Russia's currency has stabilized along with the price of oil, a critical development. Investors have irrationally beaten down the price of RSX and the upside potential has outweighed the downside potential for a few months now. RSX is trading at a P/E of 9.41 and a P/B of .95. With an uptick in oil prices and lowering/elimination of sanctions, the energy and financial sectors comprising a combined 43.2% of the ETF will benefit immensely. Analysts pegging Russia as a value trap have been proven wrong and the worst case scenarios have failed to materialize. There is still a looming cloud of negativity and investors have not missed the boat yet.

ETF Breakdown

Russia is a contrarian's dream opportunity. There has been so much negative news that the very worst case scenario for Russia has been priced into the country's stock market. The risk vs. reward has been tilted significantly towards the reward side. Take a look at this chart:
(click to enlarge)
Source: Yahoo Finance
Some may think they have missed the rebound in the Russian market or call it as a "dead cat" bounce. But the conditions of Russia's markets are improving along with the price of oil. While the economy is still forecast to shrink significantly, the war in Ukraine is still being waged, and western sanctions are cutting deep, the Russian market is so cheap that it should become interesting to any long-term buyer. There are a few ETFs that focus on Russia: RSX, the iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: ERUS), the Daily Russia Bull 3x Shares (NYSEARCA: RUSL), the Daily Russia Bear 3x Shares (NYSEARCA:RUSS), the Market Vectors Russia Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: RSXJ), the SPDR S&P Russia ETF (NYSEARCA: RBL). For this analysis there will be a focus on RSX. Let's breakdown the ETF's biggest holdings:
(click to enlarge)
Source: Van Eck Global
As you can see, energy comprises a whopping 41.2% of this ETF's holdings. Obviously with this significant of a stake in energy, this ETF is partially a bet on an oil rebound in the medium- to long-term. Materials (15.7%) and financials (12%) make up another 27.7% of this ETF. Materials have been having a rough go of it with the commodities sell-off and financials haven been battered by the widespread sanctions over the Ukraine conflict.
The majority of these holdings are highly exposed to political risk, foreign-exchange risk, and country risk. This is by no means a non-risky ETF. Investors should very carefully consider the percentage of their portfolio they are willing to commit to a medium- to high-risk (and high reward) investment.

Valuation

Just looking at the YTD performance of this ETF, one might be inclined to declare Russia fairly valued adjusted for risk. But once you move past the YTD performance of the ETF and the Russian stock market, Russia still appears cheap in valuation.
(click to enlarge)
Source: Morningstar
Much of the rally has been due to the strengthening of the Ruble. Hitting a high of nearly 70 rubles per dollar in January, the Ruble has been on a tear and now trades at 49 rubles per dollar. The collapse in earnings in Russia can be attributed to both the rapid devaluation in the Ruble and the oil decline. With both recovering recently the Russian stock market has rallied. But the companies comprising RSX are still undervalued based on their fundamentals. The rally in the Ruble has blinded many investors to the continued undervaluation of the companies that comprise the majority of the Russian stock market. Even after the recent upswing, RSX is trading at a P/E of 9.41 and a price to book of .95. With a 30-day SEC yield of 3.37%, RSX also pays a hefty dividend adding to the value of the ETF. With a potential increase in fundamental strength there will be even more gains to reap.
Let's take a look at Gazprom (OTCMKTS: OTCPK:OGZPY), the biggest single holding of RSX comprising 7.83% of this ETF. Gazprom is currently trading at a 22.6 P/E because of the massive fall in earnings in 2014 due to the collapse of the Ruble and the oil shock. A better gauge would be to use the forward P/E which Gazprom trades at a multiple of 2. Gazprom has a P/B value of 0.4 and a dividend yield of 5.4%. While historically Gazprom is somewhat within its normal range on its valuation metrics, there is tremendous upside to be had if the value of its reserves turns out to be accurate, oil continues to rise, and natural gas prices begin to rise. While not extrapolating this valuation to the rest of the portfolio, the majority of the holdings comprising RSX are about the same or even better in valuation as Gazprom. Many Russian companies are significantly undervalued based on fundamentals and this article will explore the reasoning behind this undervaluation further in the following section.

"It's a Trap"

The term value trap is something that gets tossed around a lot nowadays. Analysts will point to Russia's ineffective policies, the continuation of the Ukraine conflict, and Western sanctions all as reasons that Russia is a classic value trap. But these analysts have been proven wrong in recent months and RSX has responded to the increasingly positive outlook on the negatives these analysts have been touting.
The Russian government was actually extremely effective in preventing a complete collapse in the Ruble through calculated interventions. Analysts haphazardly threw around the terms capital controls and capital flight during the collapse of the Ruble and predicted the absolute worst case scenario. These "inevitable" scenarios turned out to be false on all fronts. According toBloomberg, Russia is in fact "…stockpiling dollars again…" signaling the worst of the crisis may be over.
The Ukraine conflict has been "frozen" in recent months, representing a tremendous positive for Russia. One of the biggest concerns for those claiming Russia to be a value trap was the possibility for widespread escalation in the Ukraine conflict. This has failed to materialize and is a highly unlikely scenario as Russia has experienced one of the worst economic declines since the recent financial crisis. Ukraine does not represent enough of a strategic element to Russia to deserve crippling its own economy, losing thousands of lives, and losing the confidence of the Russian people. Putin is a former KGB agent and a shrewd leader keen to consolidate his power. Escalation of the conflict would directly contrast his own goals and those of Russia in general.
Sanctions on Russia will be expiring in July and will present a potential catalyst to many of the holdings in RSX. As long as Russia does not further escalate in Ukraine and the conflict remains on the backburner, sanctions will expire and Russian banks will inevitably profit greatly. As financials represent 12% of the holdings in RSX, this will be a boon to the ETF.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Oil Prices Stabilizing, Russia Does the Same: Donovan, Bullish stock symbol WLL

Oil Prices Stabilizing, Russia Does the Same: Donovan

UBS Investment Bank Global Economist Paul Donovan discusses the outlook for the Russian economy and its impact on markets. He speaks with Francine Lacqua and Guy Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

5:11 AM EDT 

WHITING PETROLEUM CORPORATION (WLL)

Description:
Whiting Petroleum Corporation, an independent oil and gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in the United States. It operates primarily in the Rocky Mountains, Permian Basin, Mid-Continent, Michigan, and Gulf Coast regions. The company primarily sells oil and gas to end users, marketers, and other purchasers. As of December 31, 2012, its estimated proved reserves totaled 378.8 million barrels equivalent of oil; and had interests in 10,218 gross productive wells in approximately 1,277,400 gross developed acres. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Denver, Colorado. (collapse)
May 12, 2015

Charles GrahamUnaffiliatedBuy  Mar 27, '15  30.50 34.00 Apr 27, '15 16.79% 
Will GreenStephens Inc.Buy  Mar 25, '15  31.57 37.00 Mar 25, '16 17.20% 
Scott HanoldRBC Capital MarketsBuy  Mar 25, '15  31.57 41.00 Mar 25, '16 9.95% 
Jason WanglerWunderlich Securities, Inc.Buy  Mar 25, '15  31.57 50.00 Mar 25, '16 9.95% 
Joseph AllmanJPMorganBuy  Mar 09, '15  37.71  Mar 09, '16 -7.96% 

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Russia sees inflation reaching 17% in 2015

Russia sees inflation reaching 17% in 2015

As the Russian currency continues to suffer given the slumping prices of crude, the deputy economy minister of the country has on Wednesday expressed that inflation in the country could hit 17 per cent this year.

Alexei Vedev reportedly said that inflation will come in during March - April when the year –on -year inflation could touch 15 to 17 per cent.

The official inflation has already reached 11 per cent as the rouble has been blown hard by falling oil prices and the Western sanctions over Ukraine conflict.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

2/13/2014 Comcast JUMPS the GUN, and BUYS TIME-WARNER CABLE, what a heck of a play for Comcast, L.A. & NEW York will finally be offered true high definition home-entertainment by a cable company that actually cares about its consumers! Stock quote CMCSA (Comcast) with a $69.00 target!

Long COMCAST CORPORATION (CMCSA)

                    $69.00 12 Month Price Target

COMCAST INCREASES DIVIDEND AND SHARE REPURCHASES
Dividend to Increase 15.4% to $0.90 per Share on an Annualized Basis Share Repurchase Authorization to Increase to $7.5 Billion, with $3.0 Billion to be Repurchased in 2014 PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ...http://www.cmcsa.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=821444
         This is a great move for Comcast Cable and the Tri-state are as well as L.A. You see Time Warner had been well behind Cablevision and Comcast as far as updating their copper infrastructure. Both, Comcast and Cablevision, have diligently been updating their network to compete with Verizon FIos, they bring fiber to the node. You see a node, predominantly, entangles 30 units in its web, by bringing fiber to the node this enables the copper companies to increase bandwidth, and thus deliver more channels and faster internet service. Comcast has also been very keen in even adding boosters to the copper lines that connect from the node to a unit and/or house, and they had been able to deliver a true 20/5 speed of internet with their basic residential package. Now 20/5 isn't truly light speed fiber-optic internet like a 50/20 speed that which FIos brings to the table, but it's definitely fast enough to compete as the residential consumer is reluctant to even notice the difference. 
            You see Time Warner had been lacking in the internet department for quite some time, as far as what speed of internet they could bring to the table. Their drag of a network could barely deliver 10/2. Now, this has all been due to the fact that Time Warner had become lazy, and for quite some time they had not been working on updating their infrastructure. 
           I knew for awhile now that,most likely, Time Warner would either sell, or be bought out, due to the fact that you could tell that ownership had abandoned the product, rather than put in the work to keep up with competition, TW was work-shy, they thought for some time they could compete and get away by just spending millions in bolstered commercial advertisement campaigns, but over time the masses began to see through this fa-sad, spending money only on marketing, and not the network itself, is no-win situation. Eventually, a situation like the latter, is a recipe for disaster leading to lack of innovation and a bewildered product. 
COMCAST CORPORATION (CMCSA)
Check out top analysts' recommendation for CMCSA
Last closing price (Feb 12 4:00 EDT):
55.24 (0.44%) ? 
Return to date (1m/3m/6m/12m):
16.56% ? 
Consensus price target (1m/3m/6m/12m):
69.00
 ? 
Buy/Sell Mix (1m/3m/6m/12m):
100%/0%
 ? 
Description:
Comcast Corporation operates as a media and technology company worldwide. It operates through Cable Communications, Cable Networks, Broadcast Television, Filmed Entertainment, and Theme Parks segments. The Cable Communications segment offers video, high-speed Internet, and voice services to residential and business customers under the XFINITY brand name. This segment also provides business services, such as cellular backhaul services to mobile network operators; Ethernet network services; and online advertising services. As of December 31, 2012, it served 22.0 million video customers, 19.4 million high-speed Internet customers, and 10.0 million voice customers. The Cable Networks segment consists of national cable entertainment, national cable news and information, national cable sports, regional sports and news, and international cable networks; and a cable television production studio and digital media properties. The Broadcast Television segment comprises NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks, NBC and Telemundo owned local broadcast television stations, broadcast television production operations, and related digital media properties. The Filmed Entertainment segment produces, acquires, markets, and distributes filmed entertainment under the Universal Pictures, Focus Features, and Illumination names. This segment also develops, produces, and licenses stage plays. The Theme Parks segment comprises theme parks; studios; and a dining, retail, and entertainment complex. Comcast Corporation also owns a multipurpose arena in Philadelphia. The company offers its services directly to residential and business customers through call centers; door-to-door selling; direct mail, television, Internet, and local media advertising; and telemarketing and retail outlets. Comcast Corporation was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (collapse)
Sector:

Industry:
Analyst?Research Firm?Signal?Signal Date?Initial Price?Price Target?Closing Date?Return?
Timothy HoranOppenheimer & Co.Buy  Jan 30, '14  54.19 58.00 Jan 30, '15 1.94% 
Bryan KraftEvercore PartnersBuy  Jan 28, '14  53.35 Jan 28, '15 3.54% 
Douglas MitchelsonDeutsche Bank SecuritiesBuy  Jan 21, '14  53.31 64.00 Jan 21, '15 3.62% 
Thomas EaganCanaccord GenuityBuy  Dec 04, '13  48.88 Dec 04, '14 13.01% 
New York ElitesUnaffiliatedBuy  Nov 13, '13  47.39 52.00 Nov 13, '14 16.56% 
Douglas MitchelsonDeutsche Bank SecuritiesBuy  Oct 29, '13  47.71 60.00 Oct 29, '14 15.78% 
Matthew HarriganWunderlich Securities, Inc.Buy  Oct 28, '13  48.23 63.00 Oct 28, '14 14.53% 
Timothy HoranOppenheimer & Co.Buy  Aug 02, '13  45.52 52.00 Aug 02, '14 21.35% 
Todd MitchellBrean Murray, Carret & Co.Buy  Aug 01, '13  45.64 Aug 01, '14 21.03% 
Tuna AmobiS&P CapitalBuy  Jul 31, '13  44.88 Jul 31, '14 23.08% 
John TinkerMaxim GroupBuy  Jul 31, '13  44.88 56.00 Jul 31, '14 23.08% 
Matthew HarriganWunderlich Securities, Inc.Buy  Jul 05, '13  41.52 56.00 Jul 05, '14 33.04% 
Frank LouthanRaymond JamesBuy  Jun 17, '13  39.72 Jun 17, '14 39.07% 
Timothy HoranOppenheimer & Co.Buy  May 05, '13  42.39 48.00 May 05, '14 30.31% 
Mike MccormackNomuraBuy  May 01, '13  41.48 May 01, '14 33.17% 
Bryan KraftEvercore PartnersBuy  May 01, '13  41.48 May 01, '14 33.17% 
Chris WattsAtlantic EquitiesBuy  Feb 18, '13  40.89 48.00 Feb 18, '14 35.09% 
Bryan KraftEvercore PartnersBuy  Feb 14, '13  39.79 46.00 Feb 14, '14 38.83% 
Jonathan AtkinRBC Capital MarketsBuy  Feb 13, '13  39.58 46.00 Feb 13, '14 39.57% 
Christopher KingStifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.Buy  Feb 13, '13  39.58 45.00 Feb 13, '14 39.57%