The Mega FOMC conference results!!!

The Mega FOMC conference results!!!

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Macroeconomic Analysis
Is a Perfect Storm Brewing for the Week Ahead?
White House Drama and FOMC Could Push Volatility Higher This Week
By Ricky Cove
Mar 19, 2018 | 8:08 AM
Stock markets brace for higher volatility
White House drama dominated US market movement last week. After Trump fired US secretary of state Rex Tillerson via Twitter, President Trump fired FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe days before his retirement to undercut Robert Mueller’s probe into Russia meddling in the US elections. If we put political risk aside, markets were still on the edge last week due to the possibility of a second round of tariffs. Economic data reported last week indicated slower growth in inflation, but higher industrial production and consumer confidence overshadowed the weak inflation report.

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US market performance
Equity markets in the US remained under pressure amid increased political uncertainty and the possibility of another round of tariffs. Broad market ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), the Deutsche Bank’s Dogs of the Dow ETN (DOD), and the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series (QQQ) fell in the previous week. The US dollar rallied against major currencies after the industrial production and consumer confidence reports, while the US bond (BND) markets managed a minor recovery as lower-than-expected February inflation growth reduced fears about faster rate hikes.

VIX Index speculators continue to bet against volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (or VIX), which is a measure of investor expectations for future volatility and tracked by ETFs such as the iPath S&P 500 VIX short-term futures (VXX), rebounded last week. The S&P VIX 500 closed at 15.8 as compared to the previous week’s close of 14.64. As per the latest Commitment of Trader’s (or COT) report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (or CFTC), large speculators have decreased their long volatility positions from 76,918 contracts to 53,612 contracts. With the FOMC March meeting in focus and the ongoing political drama in the White House, we can expect bouts of higher volatility this week.

In the rest of this series, we’ll analyze the performance of various asset classes and discuss their outlook for the week ahead.

How Large Speculator Positions in S&P 500 Index Trended Last Week
By Ricky Cove
Mar 19, 2018 | 8:08 AM
S&P 500 Index back in the red
For the week ending March 16, the S&P 500 Index closed at 2,752.01, a fall of 1.2%, as news about a possible second round of import tariffs could be announced soon and because of the increased political uncertainty at the White House. Global trade war concerns reemerged last week, dragging US and global equity into negative territory. The other concern for markets last week was the inflation report. Inflation in February was reported to have increased at a slower-than-expected pace, which allayed fears about rates rising too quickly, at least one positive outcome for the markets. Two of the major S&P 500 sectors, utilities (XLU) and the real estate (XHB), managed to record gains last week, while the financials (XLF) and the materials sectors were the worst-performing sectors last week.

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Speculator positions on S&P 500 Index                                           
Large speculators of the S&P 500 Index increased their net bullish positions last week. The net long contracts increased from 11,809 contracts to 13,917 contracts. This data was reported by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (or CFTC) through their weekly commitment of traders report. This data was only up to Tuesday, March 13, which was before the firing of the deputy director of the FBI and retail sales, consumer confidence, and industrial production releases. The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and the iShares S&P 500 (IVV), ETFs that track the S&P 500 Index, have witnessed higher inflows of $8.3 billion and $917 million, respectively.

The S&P 500 Index outlook
There are two major event risks for the US indexes this week. One major risk could be political as Robert Muller moves ahead with the special counsel investigation. President Trump could get even more aggressive, which could rattle investor sentiment. The other risk is the FOMC, which is scheduled to meet this week. A hawkish statement along with a higher dot plot and improved economic projections following an almost priced in 0.25% hike could signal a higher possibility of another three rate hikes this year. A faster rate or interest rate increase could have a negative impact on the indexes last week.

FOMC Could Decide the Fate of the US Dollar This Week
By Charles Graham aka Vanilla spilla
Mar 23
US dollar helped by softer tariffs
The US Dollar Index appreciated for a fourth consecutive week due in part to the impressive industrial production and consumer confidence numbers that were reported at the end of the previous week. Earlier in the previous week, lower-than-expected inflation growth and retail sales numbers had little impact on the US dollar as markets have already priced in a rate hike from the US Fed at its March meeting. The turmoil in the White House had a marginal negative impact on the US dollar as the pressure from the Mueller probe reached the Trump businesses last week. The US Dollar Index (UUP) closed for the week ending March 16 at 90.2, a weekly gain of 0.17%.

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Speculator positions as of March 13
As per the latest commitment of traders report, released on March 16 by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission (or CFTC), large speculators and traders have increased short positions in the US dollar for a third consecutive week.

As per Reuters calculations, the net US dollar (USDU) net short positions increased to -$14.6 billion as compared to -$11.5 billion in the previous week. This amount is a combination of the US dollar’s contracts against the combined contracts of the euro (FXE), British pound (FXB), Japanese yen (FXY), Australian dollar (FXA), Canadian dollar (FXC), and the Swiss franc.

Key events for the US dollar this week
The major event for the US dollar this week is the FOMC meeting that will begin on Tuesday. The statement will be released on Wednesday. The FOMC meeting will be followed by a press conference and an update to economic projections. Markets may be looking for hints about the FOMC’s future plans. An unambiguously hawkish FOMC could trigger a US dollar rally, but any hint of dovishness could unwind the recent gains in the US dollar.

Why Bond Markets Returned to Worrying about Flattening Yield Curve
By Ricky Cove
Mar 19, 2018 | 8:08 AM
Inflation miss triggers yield curve flattening worries
The US bond markets moved marginally higher in the previous week as investors’ worry about rising bond yields fell after the February inflation print showed stable growth. The Consumer Price Index (or CPI) grew by 0.2% in February, taking the annual growth in core inflation to 1.8%. The bond market responded to the inflation report with a fall in bond yields after the inflation report. Weaker-than-expected housing starts and building permits have also added to the downward pressure on the bond yields last week. The Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF, which tracks the performance of the bond markets, ended the previous week at 79.5, appreciating by 0.26% for the week ending March 16.

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Bond market performance and speculator positions
For the week ending March 16, the ten-year (IEF) yield closed at 2.8%, depreciating by five basis points. The two-year yield (SHY) closed at 2.3% (up by three basis points), and the longer-term 30-year yield (TLT) closed at 3.1% (down by nine basis points). The decline in long-term yields reignited the fears of yield curve flattening, which is a negative signal for the economy.

As per the latest commitment of traders (or COT) report, released on March 16 by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission (or CFTC), speculator short positions decreased for the first time in four weeks. The total net bearish positions as of Tuesday, March 13, fell by 90,781 contracts from 362,150 contracts to 271,369 contracts. Stable inflation growth in February allayed bond market investors’ fears about interest rates increasing too quickly, resulting in a decrease in short positions in the US bond (BSV) markets.

The week ahead for the bond markets 
This week, the focus of bond market investors will likely be on the FOMC meeting. It is highly expected the Fed will increase rates by 0.25% at this meeting, but the focus will be on the language of the statement, which could push bond yields either way. Bond market bulls might be hoping for a dovish Fed, which could lead to lower yields and higher bond prices, while bond bears might be hoping for an unambiguously hawkish Fed, which could increase the odds for a fourth rate hike in 2018 and thereby push bond yields higher and bond prices lower.

Why the Euro Was under Pressure Last Week
By Ricky Cove
Mar 19, 2018 | 8:08 AM
Euro hit by dovish comments
The euro-dollar (FXE) exchange rate closed the week ending March 16 at 1.22, a fall of 0.15% against the US dollar (UUP). The decline in the European currency was fueled by the dovish European Central Bank (or ECB) statement, which was echoed by ECB members in their speeches in the last week. ECB members were clear about their intention to keep the policy guidance unchanged as the European inflation growth remains subdued. A strong euro could further depress import costs, resulting in lower inflation.

European equity markets, which are tracked by the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK), had a mixed performance last week. The German DAX (DAX) ended the week lower by 0.23%, the Euro Stoxx (FEZ) was up 0.27%, and France’s CAC gained 0.11% for the week ending March 16.

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Euro speculative bets increased last week
As per the latest commitment of traders report, released on Friday, March 16, by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission (or CFTC), speculator positions on the euro increased by 13,408 contracts last week. The total net speculative bullish positions on the euro (EUFX) increased from 132,972 contracts to 146,380 contracts as of March 13.

Outlook for euro
This week, the European currency price action is likely to be impacted by the US dollar demand and the FOMC statement. A hawkish FOMC statement could lead to the appreciation of the US dollar against the euro. Several economic data releases from the euro area are expected this week, but they are unlikely to have a major impact on the European currency’s performance this week. In the next part of this series, we’ll analyze why this week is important for the British pound.

Why the British Pound Could Turn Volatile This Week
By Ricky Cove
Mar 19, 2018 | 8:08 AM
British pound posts minor losses last week
The British pound (FXB) appreciated 0.66% against the US dollar (UUP) for the week ending March 16. The pound (GBB) closed for the week at 1.394 as compared to a close of 1.385 in the previous week. There weren’t any major economic data reports from the UK last week, but a weaker euro led to increased demand for the British currency.

British equity markets (BWX) were impacted by increased concerns about global trade wars and closed lower last week. The FTSE 100 Index (EWU) was down 0.84% for the week ending March 16 and closed at 7,164.14.

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Speculators decrease bullish positions
As per the latest commitment of traders report, released on March 16 by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission (or CFTC), speculators have increased their overall bullish positions by 2,763 contracts in the previous week. The total outstanding net long contracts increased from 5,264 contracts to 8,027 contracts as of March 13.

The week ahead for the British pound
This week is filled with events and economic data releases that could drive the British pound’s volatility higher. The most important event is the EU summit on Thursday and Friday, where they could look at cementing a Brexit transition deal with the EU. As per recent news reports, there could be a deal at this meeting, which could have a positive impact on the British pound. The Bank of England is also scheduled to meet this week, but no major changes are expected after a surprisingly hawkish statement at the last meeting. Overall, a transition deal, if accepted by both sides, could lead to the appreciation of the British pound this week. In the next part of this series, we’ll analyze the price action of the Japanese yen in an uncertain political and economic environment.

What’s in Store for the Japanese Yen This Week?
By Ricky Cove
Mar 19, 2018 | 8:08 AM
Japanese yen appreciated 0.73% last week
The Japanese yen (JYN) managed to claw back its losses after the scare about a second round of tariffs hit the global financial markets last week. The possibility of the second round of tariffs from the Trump administration, especially to target Chinese imports, ignited fears of a trade war. There weren’t many economic data releases from Japan, but the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s meeting last week indicated that the central bank was in no hurry to tighten policy. In the week ending March 16, the Japanese yen (FXY) closed at 106.0 against the US dollar (UUP), appreciating by 0.73%. Japanese equity markets (EWJ), on the other hand, continued to appreciate despite a global decline in risk appetite with the Nikkei 225 (JPXN) posting a weekly gain of 0.97% in the previous week.

7

Speculators decreased bearish bets on the yen     
The Japanese yen (YCL) speculators decreased their net short positions on the yen for a fifth consecutive week, as per the latest commitment of traders report, released on March 16 by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission. As of Tuesday, March 13, Japanese yen speculators had a net short position of 79,539 contracts as compared to 86,845 short contracts in the previous week.

The week ahead for the Japanese yen
This week’s price action of the Japanese yen could be driven by demand for the US dollar, especially depending on the outcome of the FOMC meeting. A hawkish FOMC could lead to further depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, while the opposite could lead the yen to appreciate. Japan’s February exports, March manufacturing, and inflation reports are expected this week.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke criticized Germany last Friday for not working to reduce its trade surplus, which could be hurting its neighbors,. Direction will be quantified by Donald Trump to defer this German surplus at the same token, if we remain hopeful, the isolationists, Donald Trump, will come to his wits, and pass the TPP, the Transpacific partnership. This would allow for the USA to fix the china trade surplus problem, a stiff blockade of exports from the Chinese into the U.S. is in the cards.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben  Bernanke criticized Germany last Friday for not working to reduce its trade surplus, which could be hurting its neighbors,.                                                                (THe U.s. Breaking up with China over Taiwan!

Direction will be quantified by Donald Trump to defer this German surplus at the same token, if we remain hopeful, the isolationists,  Donald  Trump, will come to his wits,  and pass the TPP, the Transpacific   partnership.                                   (NWO The Japanese-US- Taiwan Alliance )

                                                               This would allow for the USA to fix the china trade surplus problem, a stiff blockade of exports from the Chinese into the U.S. is in the cards.  

Very simply by no longer having our merchants put in their purchase orders  to the Chinese cheap goods, we aim to shift our  cards by doubling down on this one.  For the Trump stump slump stall on  the mega trade deal between the US and the South Asian - states is a hexagonal shift benefiting both parties , i.e. the US. and the Asian States.  So  simply by signing the TPP,  the US will no longer need china to manufacture their goods and services.  This New World Order continuity pact between the US and the ASian states minus the Bear China, with strengthening trade ties  Between the U.s  and  Vietnam and Taiwan and other neighboring asian states minus china of course, allows the US to  thus deliver the deathblow to the Chinese , halting imports of their cheap shit. THE U.s looks to Ben Bernanke  for Guidance  to strengthen trade agreements and provide balance to the Order! If China looks to peg oil imports with worthless over printed Yuan , subjecting to defer from the Petro, inconsequently  only seems quite per plexing because merchants whom export oil to the chinese only want to be paid In U.s. dollar , not worthless Yuan.  Perhaps china will rethink their dragonimics before their is an oil shortage in china , since all merchants will halt exports until they are provided either US Dollar or Gold.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke criticized Germany last Friday for not working to reduce its trade surplus, which could be hurting its neighbors, he said. Ahead of the spring’s international economic G-20 summit, Bernanke laid down recommendations for what Germany could do on its part to alleviate deep recession in the eurozone.

Last year, Germany’s trade surplus was about $250 billion, almost 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, the measure of goods and services produced, said Bernanke, citing the Deutsche Bundesbank.

According to Bernanke, there are three main reasons why Germany has such a large trade surplus, that has even exceeded China’s.

Sure, Germany produces high quality goods, with a lot of demand, but the main explanation for the surplus is that the euro is weak. The currency Germany shares with 18 other countries is too weak to be consistent with German trade.

Last July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that Germany’s inflation-adjusted exchange rate was undervalued by 5 to 15 percent. And the euro has only grown weaker since.

“The comparatively weak euro is an underappreciated benefit to Germany of its participation in the currency union,” wrote Bernanke.

A third reason for the surplus is that Germany’s tight fiscal policy keeps domestic spending, including spending on imports, reined in.

What is often seen as a sign of a strong economy is criticized by Bernanke as a problem, since other members of the eurozone are in deep recession. Bernanke argued that Germany’s trade surplus is actually hurting its neighbors who are battling high unemployment and are in perilous fiscal situations where they cannot raise spending or cut taxes to stimulate domestic demand.

Imbalances in the eurozone are unhealthy, said Bernanke, as they lead to financial imbalances and unbalanced growth.

He recommended three solutions for Germany. First, invest more in public infrastructure to reduce the trade surplus by increasing domestic income and spending while also raising wages and employment. Secondly, raise the wages of German workers to increase domestic income and consumption and reduce the surplus. Third, Bernanke recommended targeted reforms such as tax incentives for private domestic investment and removing barriers to new housing construction.

Germany should also support the European Central Bank’s efforts to hit its inflation target through its recently started quantitative easing program, said Bernanke. 

“It’s true that easier monetary policy will weaken the euro, which by itself would tend to increase rather than reduce Germany’s trade surplus,” he allowed. Still, the more accommodative monetary policy would also cause inflation to rise throughout the eurozone, making it easier to restore competitiveness, and increase economic activity throughout the eurozone, including Germany.

The “Obama Doctrine” has failed in Europe, too, where English voters opted to leave the EU in defiance of the President’s threats, and where the German leadership he recently praised has delivered, first, an unnecessarily protracted financial crisis in the European periphery and, second, a disastrous influx to the core of migrants, some but not all of them refugees from a region that Europe had intervened in just enough to exacerbate its instability.

Obama's failures leave the USA with no other choice but to abandon U.K. and Europe, Donald Trump will digress on the Future of foreign policy over the next 24 hours.. The debating issues he will be battling with will set the Stage for next 100 years of worldly tides, let's hope whatever decision he does make will be the decision that us, as Americans will rally behind. It's time to reanalyze why American Foreign Interests might be taking a 180 degree turn of the century. This conflict the old USA-England/Europe Allegiance versus the China/Russian geopolitical theater seems to be rather incongruent these days , considering the England/Europe slow decline over the past 10 years... Much of American interests might be up in the air today has to do with the stemming lackluster mishandled 8 years of Obama's  Foreign Policy setback.. Down Below is the historically analysis of the OBAMA 8 year DEBACLE as Commander and Chief...

Obama’s foreign policy has been a failure, most obviously in the Middle East, where the smoldering ruin that is Syria—not to mention Iraq and Libya—attests to the fundamental naivety of his approach, dating all the way back to the 2009 Cairo speech. The President came to believe he had an ingenious strategy to establish geopolitical balance between Sunni and Shi’a. But by treating America’s Arab friends with open disdain, while cutting a nuclear deal with Iran that has left Tehran free to wage proxy wars across the region, Obama has achieved not peace but a fractal geometry of conflict and a frightening, possibly nuclear, arms race. At the same time, he has allowed Russia to become a major player in the Middle East for the first time since Kissinger squeezed the Soviets out of Egypt in the 1972-79 period. The death toll in the Syrian war now approaches half a million; who knows how much higher it will rise between now and Inauguration Day?

Meanwhile, global terrorism has surged under Obama. Of the past 16 years, the worst year for terrorism was 2014, with 93 countries experiencing an attack and 32,765 people killed. 2015 was the second worst, with 29,376 deaths. Last year, four radical Islamic groups were responsible for 74 per cent of all deaths from terrorism: ISIS, Boko Haram, the Taliban, and al-Qaeda.9 In this context, the President’s claims to be succeeding against what he euphemistically calls “violent extremism” are absurd. Much opprobrium has been heaped on Donald Trump in the course of the past year. But there was much that was true in his underreported August 15 foreign policy speech on the subject of Islamic extremism and the failure of the Obama Administration to defeat it.10

The “Obama Doctrine” has failed in Europe, too, where English voters opted to leave the EU in defiance of the President’s threats, and where the German leadership he recently praised has delivered, first, an unnecessarily protracted financial crisis in the European periphery and, second, a disastrous influx to the core of migrants, some but not all of them refugees from a region that Europe had intervened in just enough to exacerbate its instability. The President has also failed in eastern Europe, where not only has Ukraine been invaded and Crimea annexed, but also Hungary and now Poland have opted to deviate sharply from the President’s liberal “arc of history.” Finally, his foreign policy has failed in Asia, where little remains of the much-vaunted pivot. “If you look at how we’ve operated in the South China Sea,” the President boasted in an interview published in March, “we have been able to mobilize most of Asia to isolate China in ways that have surprised China, frankly, and have very much served our interest in strengthening our alliances.”11 The new President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, apparently did not receive this memorandum. In October he went to Beijing’s Great Hall of the People to announce his “separation from the United States.”

In effect, Obama has combined the rhetoric of Wilsonianism with a strategic retreat driven mainly by domestic political calculation.

In his interview with Jeffrey Goldberg, Kissinger goes further. As he puts it, with reference to Obama’s fateful decision not to intervene in Syria when Assad crossed his “red line” on the use of chemical weapons, the decision to use military force “should not be a compromise between contending domestic forces.” Whatever the rationale of Obama’s effort to achieve a new equilibrium between Sunni and Shi’a, the President has “created the impression—and the reality—of an American strategic withdrawal from the region.” The Iran deal was simply too favorable to Iran because it lifted sanctions without requiring Iran to curtail “its imperial and jihadist foreign policy” in the region: “The assumption that a weapons-specific negotiation would produce a psychological breakthrough in their thinking did not reflect Iran’s 2,000 years of imperial experience."

A New Shape for a WORLD ORDER - A motion for the China-USA-Russian Strategic Alliance could be in the works.Now after a roundtable debate, THE USA has made a 180 degree turn, regarding Foreign Policy, this Stance is clear, It would be in America's interest to collapse ENGLAND and DEMOTE EUROPE.! This essentially would create a More Powerful New World Order of 2017 and Beyond .. would be an Order of Titanic Proportions...This requires, at long last, the completion of the US Revolution against the British imperial system, crushing that evil system within the US and worldwide, now, before they succeed in launching a war that would mean the immediate end of civilization as we know it.

Breaking news , tides have shifted , there has been a roundtable 180 Degree turn In American Foreign Policy, the United States is perhaps on the verge to A New Shape for a WORLD ORDER - A motion for the China-USA-Russian Strategic Alliance. It would be in America's interest to collapse ENGLAND and DEMOTE EUROPE.! This essentially would create a More Powerful New World Order of 2017 and Beyond .   

It perhaps, is no longer in America's Favor to prop up a rather abysmal United Kingdom, a sorry excuse for an ally these days. Analyzing the economic data today, it is clear that The United Kingdom is really the Divided Kingdom, he says, calling the U.K. a broken growth model - dependent on imports, weak public finances, high household leverage, stagnant productivity, growing social imbalances.

The takeaway: Go short long-dated Gilts, which currently yield more than 200 basis points less than 10-year inflation expectations. Then there's the cost of Brexit - 7% of GDP over the next few years.

Notable U.K. ETFs:  profiting on the expected U.K. collapse , FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU

A New Shape for a WORLD ORDER - A motion for the China-USA-Russian Strategic Alliance / One possible way to do this would be for Trump to propose replacing “little” NAFTA with “big” NAFTA—the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, which would bring the United Kingdom directly into a post-EU Anglo-Atlantic sphere, while at the same time delivering on Trump’s anti-Mexican (though not anti-Canadian) election pledge. At the same time, Trump could credibly apply pressure on other NATO members to increase their currently risible defense budgets. Finally, he and Putin could work together to help continental populists such as Marine Le Pen to win the elections of 2017. As Roosevelt put it in 1906: “France ought to be with us and England—in our zone and our combination. It is the sound arrangement economically and politically.”The 

-U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) intends to 

extend by July 16, 2017 the current no-action relief to Shanghai Clearing 

House for six months, with further extensions amounting to up to three years, 

if appropriate and consistent with the conditions set forth in the no-action 

relief. The People’s Bank of China and the CFTC are to work towards a 

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) concerning the cooperation and the 

exchange of information related to the oversight of cross-border clearing 

organizations.

 -By July 16, 2017, China is to issue any further necessary guidelines 

and allow wholly U.S.-owned suppliers of electronic payment services (EPS) 

to begin the licensing process. This should lead to full and prompt market 

access. China is to continue to allow Chinese banks to issue dual brand-dual 

currency bankcards that allow U.S. EPS suppliers to process foreign currency 

payment card transactions.

-The applicable U.S. federal regulatory authorities remain committed 

to apply in the United States the same bank prudential supervisory and 

regulatory standards to Chinese banking institutions as to other foreign 

banking institutions, in like circumstances and in accordance with U.S. law.

China is to issue both bond underwriting and settlement licenses to 

two qualified U.S. financial institutions by July 16, 2017.

-The United States recognizes the importance of China’s One Belt and 

One Road initiative and is to send delegates to attend the Belt and Road 

Forum in Beijing May 14-15. 

-The United States welcomes direct investment by Chinese 

entrepreneurs as it does by entrepreneurs from other countries. The United 

States welcomes Chinese participation in the SelectUSA Investment Summit 

that will be held June 18-20 in Washington D.C. read full report http://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/secretaryrossbriefing.pdf

To Stop the War Party, Shut Down the British System

The GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, the United States' most powerful non-nuclear bomb was recently used in Afghanistan by the Trump administration. [defense.gov]

20170416-stop-war-edit.pdf

The majority of the world’s nations and peoples are in a state of shock, and fear, that the recent 180 degree turn by President Donald Trump -- from his rejection of "regime change" and a commitment to work with Russia and China for peace and development, to a criminal and unwarranted military attack on Syria and a threat to preemptively attack North Korea -- could provoke a global nuclear war at virtually any moment. This fear is fully justified, but to prevent such an existential disaster for mankind, they must finally come to terms with the fact, long identified by Lyndon LaRouche, that the source of this crisis is the British Empire and the British System.

Not only did the London Guardian brag on April 13 that Britain's GCHQ (the UK's NSA equivalent) first notified the US intelligence services of so-called suspicious contacts between Trump campaign personnel and Russians deemed to be "suspected intelligence agents" – as if contact with Russians were a bad thing – but they openly complained that the United States was prohibited by law from spying on their own citizens -- so the Brits had to do it for them.

Through their influence over political and media networks in the U.S., and their primary asset George Soros, the British used a totally fake dossier fabricated by "former" MI6 agent Christopher Steele to create a "color revolution" movement against the Trump presidency over supposed ties to the Russians. Then, using fake intelligence reports from their terrorist-connected "White Helmet" assets in Syria, the British surrounded Trump with the lie that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons against their own population – an absurdity, since it served no military purpose, and the Syrian government was already clearly winning the war against ISIS and al-Qaeda terrorists with Russian help. Recall that it was Tony Blair who provided the fake intelligence that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, drawing GW Bush into the war on Iraq that launched the current Hell of terror and mass refugees across the Middle East.

This British complicity was made public on April 12th in the UN Security Council, when Russian Deputy Envoy to the Security Council, Vladimir Safronkov, turned directly to the British Ambassador Matthew Rycroft, who had just denounced Russia for backing Bashar al Assad in Syria (and who had earlier been an aid to Tony Blair when the British launched the criminal war on Iraq). Safronkov correctly identified the British motive in their lies and war mongering: "You are afraid that we might work with the U.S. This is what you lose sleep over."

This is exactly the British purpose. The British have used the United States as their "dumb giant" to fight their colonial wars ever since the assassination of John F. Kennedy – from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya and Syria, and now perhaps North Korea, which would bring all of Asia and the world into a nuclear holocaust. The British are willing to risk global nuclear war in order to prevent the U.S. from breaking the imperial division of the world into conflicting East and West, from uniting the entire world behind mutual peace and development, and ending Empire once and for all.

LaRouche's Schiller Institute demonstrated the way out of this disaster on April 13-14 in Manhattan, in a conference titled "U.S.-China Cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative and Corresponding Ideas in Chinese and Western Philosophy." Speaking at the conference were leading Chinese and Russian diplomats and professionals, presenting the urgency that President Trump join with China and Russia in the New Silk Road projects now bringing win-win development, rather than war, to every part of the world. Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder of the Schiller Institute, addressed both the urgency of this cooperation as the necessary "war avoidance" policy, but also the need to bring the cultural traditions of all great nations – and especially those of the Chinese Confucian culture and the Western Renaissance culture – into harmony as the basis for meeting the common aims of mankind.

This requires, at long last, the completion of the US Revolution against the British imperial system, crushing that evil system within the US and worldwide, now, before they succeed in launching a war that would mean the immediate end of civilization as we know it.

Every citizen, of every nation, must act on the basis of their true humanity at this moment of crisis of civilization, to join with the LaRouche movement and other like-minded citizens of the world, to crush the British system, and bring into being a new paradigm represented by the New Silk Road process of peace through development.

Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche's keynote address to the April 13-14th conference, "U.S.-China Cooperation on the Belt & Road Initiative," exploring the corresponding ideas in Chinese and Western thought.                                                                                                                                                                                            

Russian Communism's Fall Was Apparent Rather Than Actual: It Fell Because It Was to The Kremlin's Advantage

Russian Communism's Fall Was Apparent Rather Than Actual: It Fell Because It Was to The Kremlin's Advantage..

People claim that Communism in Russia fell because the military spending was more of a burden than the economy could handle. That is like saying a man dies because he was sprinting and could not keep up that rate of speed. My point is that the alternative solution is simple - just slow down. Ditto with Russia's spending on war and missiles. It could simply cut back. So that spending (by itself or even with other things) does NOT really make sense - it doesn't explain the fall of Communism.in Russia.
 
I mean the alternative view to the accepted one (that the fall was legit) is that the fall of Communism was contrived. They did it because it was to their advantage to do so. What has happened as a result of that fall?? Answer: the USA has clearly disarmed overmuch. CLEARLY to a degree that they would not otherwise be the case, right?? Isn't that Clearly to the advantage of the Russians!!!    
If the Cold War had kept going on in the 80s-90s-2000s we wouldn't have cut back to just 12 subs we have at present, from the impressive 39 boomer subs we had in Reagan's day.  Shouldn't we entertain the notion that the masterminds in the Kremlin could have foreseen just that disarmament frenzy, and said to themselves, Oh wow - that's what we've got to do: END THE COLD WAR and the stupid Americans (and Europeans) are sure to react by shifting tons of money away from the military over to "social programs" ie, welfare spending.  
 
That the fall of Communism in Russia was deliberate is shown by the fact that Gorbachev came to New York City, to the UN and declared, "no more us of force to crush rebellion in the East Euro states." THAT is what led East Europe to demand more freedom, and Russia giving freedom to their "satellite nations.". I add that because "ending the Cold War" is a catch all term that includes a lot  more than just that. Giving up Eastern Europe is thrown in, along with letting the SU split up. Plus legalizing capitalism and religion.  
 
I admit that if the fall was a fraud, Gorbachev has to be given credit for a massive amount of risk-taking. It's breath-taking in its scope.  
 
It just goes to show how much they desire to win nuclear war  -- which is what ending the Cold War will do for them in the sense that the West has been steadily disarming (while the Russians, not so much).  
 
A reporter asked Pres. Bush back in 2008 or so something like Can you verify that Russia is abiding by the arms control agreements? Bush, so typical of our leaders, said, something like, "I emphasize transparency, not verification." The West is so happy for Russia to withdraw from E Europe that the West is willing to turn a blind eye on all the cheating they do. For example Russia built THOUSANDS of ABMs when the ABM Treaty limits them to just 200. This was way before we pulled out of that treaty ourselves.    
 
I guess the main thing for me to emphasize about the Kremlin is that they are no dummies. You have to ask yourself, "Could it be that the Russians were smart enuff to see that ending the Cold War, etc, etc would lead to America disarming, going overboard about disarmament??" (So that Russia could win nuclear war when America's missile warheads, the number of them, were reduced down to a number on a par with the Russian ABMs needed to shoot them all down. I mean Russia reportedly has enuff ABMs to intercept 1,300 warheads. While we have recently cut back to where we have just 1,150 warheads on the subs we have at sea. (The subs in port don't count, for they can be easily wiped out by bombing our ports, you see.) In short, we have disarmed to the point that we have fewer warheads than Russia can shoot down !! We are actually TEMPTING the Russians to bomb us !! I'm not making this up.

PS:  Could the Kremlin have been smart enuff to foresee that ending the Cold War, etc, would trick America into going overboard on disarmament??
If you answer yes to that question, why not admit that the prospect of winning world war 3 may be so tempting that the Kremlin judges the loss of millions of American lives to be worth the price??

Profit on the negative cat bounce in China, The amount of margin debt has doubled since the start of the year. A Chinese state auditor found that more than a dozen state-owned companies falsified their records to seem healthier. And some of these are big companies, including State Grid Corp., COSCO Group and China Southern Power Grid Co. The official in charge of IPOs and share offerings in the Chinese stock markets, Li Zhiling, was carted off to jail for corruption last month. Yeah, I'd say that the stew is ready to bubble over! China's Communist Party also chimed in, "Rainbows always appear after rainy days."Well, sure... but you can also drown in a flood while waiting for a rainbow.!"

China’s government has complied economic indicators that give lead to a Negative Cat Bounce in China , to say the least. Who's to say us Americans can't profit on the upcoming impending Chinese collapse.    These economic stressors are  being felt from all sides of the spectrum, something has got to give, I mean how far down the rabbit hole do you want to go? 

Amid all the talk of remarkably subdued levels of volatility, signs of potentially severe stress are emerging from one of the most – if not the most – vulnerable areas in global financial markets: China’s unruly shadow banking sector.
Taking into account a multitude of negative economic indicators ranging from as follows : 
#1. China’s total debt as a share of gross domestic product has surged to nearly 265 per cent since the global financial crisis, while the value of wealth management products, a key part of shadow banking, has tripled to US$3.8 trillion in just three years, according to Bloomberg – the challenge of gently pricking an unprecedented credit bubble without roiling global markets and severely endangering growth in China is a daunting one.

 #2. Chinese brokerage firms have extended as much as 4 trillion yuan ($645 billion) of margin finance to investors. No Margin for Error Another 1.7 trillion yuan ($270 billion) may have flowed into stock market investment from wealth management products, online lending sites and other sources, according to Bloomberg. All this margin debt and "hot money" has produced a bubbling stew of instability. And the resulting risks - both inside China and outside China - are particularly large because of the sheer size of the Chinese stock markets. AND 

#3. China service sector slows, suggesting economy losing steam-An unofficial gauge of China’s service sector hit an 11-month low in April, underscoring the risks facing what has proved the most vigorous part of the world’s second-largest economy.

Now, if you didn't know, the Chinese love to trade. A whopping 81% of retail investors in China trade at least once a month, according to a State Street survey published earlier this year. That's the highest of any nation. Just 53% of Americans and 32% of French investors trade monthly or more often.

So we have an extremely volatile market jammed with new investors who like to trade a lot. Can you see how these are the ingredients for a potential meltdown?

Now let's throw in the fact that Chinese brokerage firms have extended as much as 4 trillion yuan ($645 billion) of margin finance to investors.

No Margin for Error

Another 1.7 trillion yuan ($270 billion) may have flowed into stock market investment from wealth management products, online lending sites and other sources, according to Bloomberg.

All this margin debt and "hot money" has produced a bubbling stew of instability. And the resulting risks - both inside China and outside China - are particularly large because of the sheer size of the Chinese stock markets.

The Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock markets have a combined market cap of roughly $11 trillion. That makes China No. 2 in the world behind the $24 trillion market cap of the U.S. stock markets, but well ahead of No. 3 Japan's $5 trillion market cap.

Now let's stir the pot some more.

The amount of margin debt has doubled since the start of the year.

A Chinese state auditor found that more than a dozen state-owned companies falsified their records to seem healthier. And some of these are big companies, including State Grid Corp., COSCO Group and China Southern Power Grid Co.

The official in charge of IPOs and share offerings in the Chinese stock markets, Li Zhiling, was carted off to jail for corruption last month.

Yeah, I'd say that the stew is ready to bubble over.

These are scary times. But let's look at the good side of the downside...

Speculative investors can place their bets

To be sure, this ETF $YANG is speculative and it definitely would not be suitable for the faint of heart, but it certainly is a charming money play.

But if China is really about to see the silk hit the fan, ProShares UltraShort could be a good way to make a lot of money in a hurry.

Short the Next Bounce?

But investors who are tempted to bet that Chinese stocks will resume falling should be aware that the Chinese government is doing its best to soothe frayed nerves in the market. Here's a list of just some of the things the government and its allies are doing to prop up the market.

A sudden moratorium has been imposed on new share issuance, with dozens of firms scrapping their IPO plans.

Top brokerages in China pledged that they will invest at least $19 billion into stocks. The government is backing this "market stabilization fund."

Sixty-nine Chinese mutual funds have said they would also buy stocks, though they did not say how much money they will put to work.

China's two major stock exchanges plan to lower securities transaction fees by 30% starting in August in a bid to lure more investors into the market.

And here's one more "market stabilization" maneuver: About 200 Chinese stocks halted trading after the close on Monday. This makes a total of 745 Chinese stocks that have suspended trading altogether. That's 26% of listed firms on mainland exchanges with $1.4 trillion in market cap.

I guess that's one way to stop the market from going down. Forbid your stocks from being traded.

Now, maybe this Chinese version of a "plunge protection team" will get the job done. In fact, Hong Rong, a finance expert at Shanghai DZH Limited, wrote on July 5 in a widely forwarded post that government officials "are determined to save the market and take effective measures. And they have basically already blocked the possibility of a continued slump next week."

And the Asset Management Association of China, a state-run body, joined the chorus of soothing official commentary heard in recent days, saying that falling prices presented a valuable buying opportunity for "rational investors."

China's Communist Party also chimed in, "Rainbows always appear after rainy days."

Well, sure... but you can also drown in a flood while waiting for a rainbow. Furthermore, bullish government pronouncements and market-rigging operations rarely produce a true buying opportunity. To the contrary, they usually produce short-term bounces that make for good selling opportunities.

For a few days, the Chinese government may be able to create a bounce in their stock markets, but it will likely not be able to create an enduring bull market.

So if you'd like to speculate that the sell-off in China has more to go, ProShares UltraShort might be your best bet.

A

More worryingly, there are signs that China’s economy is beginning to slow once again. On April 30, the publication of an official purchasing managers’ index survey showed that growth in the manufacturing sector last month fell to a six-month low. A separate survey for China’s services sector also revealed that activity has dropped to its lowest level in six months.A brutal sell-off across commodity markets is putting China’s manufacturing industry under strain.

It only gets a hell of alot more traumatic when you analyze the slowdown in China's service sector. This is also another tell tale sign, suggesting the obvious , that their economy is losing steam- and on the brink of implosion. An unofficial gauge of China’s service sector hit an 11-month low in April, underscoring the risks facing what has proved the most vigorous part of the world’s second-largest economy.

China’s service sector hit an 11-month low in April, underscoring the risks facing what has proved the most vigorous part of the world’s second-largest economy.

The Caixin service sector purchasing managers index fell to 51.5, compared with a reading of 52.2 in March .

Readings above 50 signal an expansion in activity in the sector, but a decline in the numbers for the fourth consecutive month, coupled with a weakening manufacturing sector troubled by overcapacity, suggests the economy is losing steam.

Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macroeconomic analysis at the CEBM Group said: “Growth in both manufacturing and services decelerated in April, reflecting a clear slowdown in the expansion of the Chinese economy.”

China’s April factory growth slows to weakest in seven months.

The Caixin China Composite Output Index, measuring both the manufacturing and service sectors, dropped for the second month in a row to 51.2 in April, down 0.9 points from March.

“A turning point in growth appeared to have emerged at the beginning of the second quarter.” Zhong said. “Investors should be cautious about downward risks in the economy.” 

The official manufacturing purchasing managers index compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics fell from 51.8 in March to 51.2 in April. The decline was blamed on factors including softer new orders and weaker production momentum. Meanwhile, the official non-manufacturing PMI moderated as well last month.

April’s full economic data, which will be released later this month, is expected to show slightly softer growth on factors such as weaker industrial production, slower property sales and cooler export growth, UBS Securities analysts led by Wang Tao said in a research note.

The rate of employment growth in China eased to the weakest so far this year, according to Caixin.

Song Yu, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs Gao Hua, said: “The fall in April was significant!"

Research the etf $YANG it's 3 times bearish on china's currency the YUAN.. China is about to implode. Implode is an understatement. For god sakes, China's debt is 250% of gross domestic profit, now that's hard to swallow, that's a ticking time bomb, profit on the impending Chinese collapse !

Profit on the negative cat bounce in China, profit on the Chinese Negative Bounce, ETF $YANG is the symbol, 3x bearish the YUAN. 

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