Thursday, July 23, 2015

The lawsuit claims that close to $1 trillion was stolen by, among others, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and the UN, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and the Italian government, Giancarlo Bruno and the Davos World Economic forum and others believed to include many of the owners of the US Federal Reserve Board. This is a civil claim arising out of the concerted, knowing, malicious scheme and international conspiracy engaged in by the Defendants for the designed purpose of defrauding plaintiff Keenan, the designated Agent of his Principal, the "Dragon Family," for the express purpose of expropriating, stealing and converting certain negotiable financial instruments lawfully owned by the Dragon Family and entrusted to Keenan in early 2009. The ultimate defendants in this legal action are believed to be the same cabal behind the assassination of US President John F. Kennedy and many other major international crimes. This particular lawsuit was triggered by the illegal detainment of two Japanese citizens, Akihiko Yamaguchi and Mitsuyoshi Watanabe, as well as the seizure of $134.5 billion in bonds they were holding in Italy on June 3, 2009.

A lawsuit was filed on November 23, 2011, in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York which could end the secret government that has ruled Western civilization for at least the past 300 years. The lawsuit was filed by Neil Keenan, acting as representative of the Dragon family. This filing is the result of extensive evidence gathering by international police and law-enforcement agencies including Interpol, the CIA, the Japanese Security Police, Eastern European secret services and has the backing of the Pentagon as well as the armed forces of Russia and China.



The lawsuit claims that close to $1 trillion was stolen by, among others, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and the UN, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and the Italian government, Giancarlo Bruno and the Davos World Economic forum and others believed to include many of the owners of the US Federal Reserve Board.
This is a civil claim arising out of the concerted, knowing, malicious scheme and international conspiracy engaged in by the Defendants for the designed purpose of defrauding plaintiff Keenan, the designated Agent of his Principal, the "Dragon Family," for the express purpose of expropriating, stealing and converting certain negotiable financial instruments lawfully owned by the Dragon Family and entrusted to Keenan in early 2009. The ultimate defendants in this legal action are believed to be the same cabal behind the assassination of US President John F. Kennedy and many other major international crimes.
This particular lawsuit was triggered by the illegal detainment of two Japanese citizens, Akihiko Yamaguchi and Mitsuyoshi Watanabe, as well as the seizure of $134.5 billion in bonds they were holding in Italy on June 3, 2009.
The roots of this case go back to between 1927 and 1938, when, under arrangements made between T.V. Soong (Finance Minister of China) and Henry Morgethau, Secretary of the Treasury, the United States Government purchased some 50 million ounces of silver and leased vast amounts of gold from the Nationalist Chinese Government, known as Kuomintang. For all the treasure handed in, certificates were given to those who surrendered their precious metals. Many of the bonds seized are backed with the Chinese gold taken by the Federal Reserve Board during those years and never returned to its legal owners. 
…The first shipment of gold they were supposed to give back was due to be sent back on September 12th, 2001. And of course, as you know, the World Trade Center got blown up on September 11th. The gold that was in the basement went missing. Cantor Fitzgerald Securities, the company that was handling the paperwork, was blown up [658 employees, which represented nearly 70 percent of its workforce, were in the office that morning — none made it out alive]. Building 7, where the Treasury police and all these people were, was blown up — and all the paperwork there was blown up. Basically, they were saying, “We’re not giving back the gold!” There was this massive gold cache underneath the World Trade Center, and they snuck it out — it was shipped to California and then I believe to Paraguay.
[end of quoted excerpt]
Here again we have a faction, the Dragon families, standing up against the Illuminati. But we should bear in mind that the rise of China’s economic growth and its current success is connected to the Illuminati, so it raises the question…what independent power do these Dragon families actually have to genuinely challenge the World Power?? or are we seeing the growth of some more manipulated conflict that will be deflected to make the World Power stronger?? Will the rise of awareness help mankind, or will it be manipulated and deflected into negative endeavors, and more bloody wars?

The problem with governmental abuse of power is that it always serves its Own INTEREST or SPECIAL INTEREST. And always to the detriment of the People's and YOUR best interest. Governmental wrong doing will always be the inevitable result of unchecked power!


The problem with governmental abuse of power is that it always serves its Own INTEREST or SPECIAL INTEREST. And always to the detriment of the People's and YOUR best interest. Governmental wrong doing will always be the inevitable result of unchecked power!
Abuse of power and wrong doing by government can and will be overturned and held in check by the People when the political mechanism that puts them back into direct control of government is adopted.
What political mechanism could put the control of government back into the hands of the People? There's a political movement with said mechanism at its core. The core principle is that of true Checks and Balances on government power. - A "People's Branch" of government allows the People to exercise DIRECT oversight of government. The People literally govern the government! Ultimately Checking and Balancing government power will bring those responsible for governmental power abuse and wrongs to justice!
Governmental persons acting against the best interest of the People should be forewarned that, at a future date, their actions may be deemed unlawful and therefore punishable. They should be aware that their actions or lack thereof that result in the creation of wrongs, such as so called "trade agreements," that ultimately harm the people's best interest may at some point be adjudicated to be harmful and therefore unlawful. Further, it would be wise of the wrong doers to realize that they, the perpetrators of governmental wrongs, may be held responsible and accountable as easily as a simple declaration or adjudication. Said wrongs may have dire consequences for those found to have helped implement or aided their authorization, through their actions or lack thereof. Those individuals may be found guilty of sedition and/or treason and tried for treason to the United States of America. Any and all elected officials and officeholders would do well to remember that there's no statutes of limitation for the crime of treason!
Many governmental wrongs such as "Fast Tracking, NAFTA, TPP, etc.," along with others may yet result in charges and convictions of treason for those responsible and accountable for their implementation. Charges and convictions for treason may be possible if it's found that government officials failed to represent the best interest of the People and their actions subsequently turn out to undermine national security. It should be understood that any governmental officials, especially current or ex-presidents and current or ex-congressional officeholders, may be open to charges of treason should their actions and/or lack of actions be deemed to have ECONOMICALLY undermined national security. Everyone would do well to remember that the final judgment rendered by the People concerning many governmental wrongs has yet to be written!
Here is actionable info that may help if read carefully...
There is a way to make government truly accountable: www.ThePeoplesBranch.org
There is a way to make government directly responsible to the people:www.ThePeoplesBranch.org
The people do not have to let the government work against them/the people! A People's Branch will see that abuse of power and authority is punished:www.ThePeoplesBranch.org
Think for yourself! Find out why a People's Branch would be good for you and your loved ones! A People's Branch will result in a better future for your children! You don't have to take our word for it. However, a Reasonable, Responsible and Conscientious person would find out if it truly had a chance to help them. They would talk to family and friends and find out how they feel about a People's Branch and why?
Reasonable, Responsible, and Conscientious people need to know that they should act NOW before the numbers of Reasonable, Responsible and Conscientious people fall too low...
Think of what a People's Branch could mean for you and/or your loved ones' finances, health, rights, freedoms, security and justice etc.
Checks and Balances!
GATEKEEPER SHILLS use these words every day. Yet, they don't really want you to know about the ultimate mechanism for implementing them. Who and what political movement reintroduced, into the public awareness, the concept of increasing Checks and Balances as a solution to control government wrong doing? They didn't - We did! -www.ThePeoplesBranch.org.
You may wonder if they even know about us. Yes, they know about us but refuse to acknowledge our efforts. Yet, Controlled Opposition GATEKEEPER SHILLS immediately started to manipulate our words and block our message getting out in order to stop or slow our political movement. Why do you think these GATEKEEPER SHILLS give every political genre of any political persuasion a venue and forum? Yet, no GATEKEEPER SHILLS will even openly take up discussing the remote possibility of a People’s Branch of government? WHY?
Isn't it because GATEKEEPER SHILLS know that anything other than the people participating directly in government offers little or no real resistance to the corruption of the power structure? Yes! They realize that the people participating directly in government, a People's Branch, changes everything! They know that, with a People's Branch, the people will no longer allow government to serve SPECIAL INTEREST over the best interest of the People - YOUR best interest!
Yet, the GATEKEEPER SHILLS know that the system is designed to allow the people a reactive mode only. They know the people are only offered pretend paths for changing government’s wrong doings (i.e. voting, organizing, campaigning (for so-called good people), running for office (by so-called good people), public protests, marches, demonstrations, rallies, sit-ins, calling and/or writing your elected officials etc.) At best the pretend methods only slow government wrong doing temporarily. GATEKEEPER SHILLS know these pretend paths only burn out good and well-meaning people by burning up and wasting their time, energy, money and/or resources with little or no positive and/or lasting results. Yes, they know that SPECIAL INTEREST will keep having its way as long as they control the closed system. They know that the pretend paths are designed to keep out any direct Checks and Balances from the outside - We the People? Think about it! Why should it have taken women sixty years to get the right to vote? Why should it have taken so many years for blacks to get the right to vote?
Isn’t it obvious, GATEKEEPER SHILLS will only continue to push their pretend methods for improving and/or stopping government wrong doing because their pretend methods continuously fail to stop governmental atrocities and SPECIAL INTEREST’S agenda? It’s the job of the GATEKEEPER SHILLS to push their pretend methods because they are proven to keep the power in the hands of SPECIAL INTEREST. Yet, all-the-while, the people are directed down their pretend paths to change and improvement, SPECIAL INTEREST continues their own direct access and participation with your elected officials for the purpose of seeing to it that THEIR best interest gets served!
Don't you realize that if a People's Branch of government had existed in the past then the People would have made sure that most of the bad things of those times would've been avoided? Yet, it is still not too late. We must now focus on the present and prepare for the future. Remember, if you want things to be better, for you and your loved ones, now and in the future than they were in the past then you'll join us. Together we'll Check and Balance government and make sure that government serves the People's and YOUR best interest!
Don't you realize the GATEKEEPER SHILLS continuously push their PSYOP of getting you to believe that their pretend methods are new and they will work for you this time? It’s a sophisticated PSYOP. Many have fallen for it. Many really believe that this time their same old approaches will work. We know their PSYOP has worked in the past - maybe even on you. Yet, their pretend methods for improvement are not new and they never have worked to insure that government serves YOUR best interest. So, the question is - will it work on YOU NOW? Now that you can see their game and you see a real viable solution for you and your loved ones - a People's Branch! Only YOUR direct participation in government can insure that YOUR best interest is served! Can't you see this?
Isn't it obvious that the GATEKEEPER SHILLS are not willing to help you see that the best and only long term solution is to cut through the political red tape and defeat the political trap masters at their own game! Isn't it obvious why they act so much like Controlled Opposition? They are Controlled Opposition! If you study what many of these people actually say and how they say it, instead of only agreeing with what you think they are saying, then you too may see how controlled opposition really works. Yes they talk a good game. But they continue to direct your attention away from the obvious solution - YOU! You are the real solution! Once you make up your mind to have a direct participation in government on the things that affect you and your loved ones then you will join us!
Remember, GATEKEEPER SHILLS continuously choose to serve their followers with only talk and do nothing of consequence. Don't you realize the mission of GATEKEEPER SHILLS is to program you to also only talk and do nothing of consequence! Talk is cheap. Their rhetoric is ultimately Controlled Opposition simply because they never engage a viable long term solution. Yet, we do and we have! Here: www.ThePeoplesBranch.org
It is paramount that you participate directly in government where you can pass or fail your elected officials vote on matters that affect you.
Isn't it foolish to let others, especially GATEKEEPERS - politicians, elected officials, public servants, bureaucrats and media mouthpieces, continuously undermine your own best interest? Wouldn't it be prudent to have a direct say in the things that affect you and your loved ones? Many Reasonable, Responsible and Conscientious people are now coming to realize that they need a mechanism whereby they can participate directly in government in order to help safeguard their own best interest!
What could this mechanism be?
The answer is a People's Branch of government!
The process to get a People's Branch of government starts with the petition!
Why a Petition? Because it's time tested and a Constitution guaranteed method whereby people/citizens can take action and change the governing and political process! People are now beginning to see how the Petition can be used to help protect their rights and freedoms. Therefore, none should forget or forgive any GATEKEEPERS that make fun of or demonize the Petition and its power and strength for good in the hands of good people!
Only GATEKEEPERS that are working to help you safeguard you and your loved ones own best interest are truly worthy of your attention, admiration, alliance, loyalty, and support!
Are there any GATEKEEPERS that are working to get the word out about a People's Branch of government? A few! Most aren't. How can you tell if the ones you follow are? The easiest way to find out is to ask them - if they are interested in promoting the best way (Citizens participating directly in government as an incorruptible Checks and Balances!) for everyone to help safeguard their own best interest!
Do any GATEKEEPERS genuinely care about the rights and freedoms of the people? A few! Those that do show that they have faith in the judgment of people as a whole! Most GATEKEEPERS demean the people for trying to exercise their best judgment when they're forced into having to choose between two evils! The GATEKEEPERS are really unfair when they demean the public and say it's their fault for electing a corrupt politician! Yet, it's never really the People's fault when some slick politician fools their constituents and gets elected - then double-crosses them! Wouldn't the answer be to institute a foolproof mechanism to Check and Balance the double-crossers? A People's Branch of government!
The GATEKEEPERS that genuinely care about their follower’s best interest will have no problem in helping to get the word out about this powerful solution i.e. our Petition for a People's Branch of government! With our petition we create a way to set-up a mechanism for corruption-proof Checks and Balances on government. If you're not hearing about this movement from the GATEKEEPER you're following then you'll know they are a Controlled Opposition GATEKEEPER SHILL.
Ultimately a People's Branch of government will hold accountable those behind government's multifaceted injustices and wrong doings - namely, the governmental authorities doing SPECIAL INTEREST bidding!
An ACTIONABLE Long Term SOLUTION for most of our problems exists HERE:www.ThePeoplesBranch.org
People are coming to understand that not unlike the original need for a Constitution and Bill of Rights, the true strength of a People's Branch of government is that it will help them protect themselves from the tyranny of government and SPECIAL INTEREST. They are coming to realize that their own best interest and the best interest of the vast majority of the people are one and the same. Yet, many don't realize this because the SPECIAL INTEREST's GATEKEEPERS use divide and conquer and fool them into believing it’s only their peers - others like themselves that are their real enemy. They don't want anyone to know it’s really them, SPECIAL INTEREST, that's the real problem - literally. They do this simply by keeping the People's attention focused on what they say is the problem and its solution.
Ever heard of Problem, Reaction, Solution? Don't you get it? Look at what others say - here and/or elsewhere... Can't you see it? Most have their attention subverted! Look at what they're focusing on! Some, many or all may simply be some form of Troll. Even if some mean well the effect of most is to divert your attention away from the systems control methods. They hope to stop you from seeing the Real Actionable Solution of a People's Branch!
Yet, people are coming to realize that SPECIAL INTEREST and their GATEKEEPERS are benefiting from their own form of direct participation (i.e. influence/manipulation) in government at the expense and detriment of the People's/Your own best interest. Therefore, until the People/You wake up and adopt this, People's Branch of government, mechanism for direct participation in government, then Their/Your own best interest will only continue to suffer.
Yet, it is exactly because SPECIAL INTEREST will always continue to trample the People's best interest that from time to time Reasonable, Responsible and Conscientious people have to resort to revolution - violent or otherwise!
ABOVE EVERYTHING THE PROPAGANDISTS THROW AT YOU – REMEMBER THIS: A People's Branch of government can and will Stop/Reform/Amend/Reverse and Heal the power structure and justice system. A People's Branch will see that those responsible for governmental wrongs are justly punished!
Wake up or die asleep it’s up to you! Reasonable, Responsible and Conscientious people are choosing to wake up! You too can Wake-Up to the only non-violent way to take your government away from SPECIAL INTEREST.
Only when citizens have a direct participation in their government concerning matters that affect them will their and their loved ones' issues (Freedoms, Rights, Security, Financial, Health, Political and Justice etc.) have a true chance to be properly addressed!
Your direct participation in government on matters that concern you and your loved ones is paramount!
A People’s Branch creates the best way to Check and Balance government! If SPECIAL INTEREST continues to get their way then you and your loved ones may lose everything! Why not help us help you?!
Every Reasonable, Responsible and Conscientious person should be asking themselves WHY DO LEADERS OF BOTH MAJOR PARTIES HATE THE IDEA OF A PEOPLES BRANCH?
Those that truly seek fair and equitable solutions can find them at The People's Branch. Implementing a People's Branch in your local area is the key you have been waiting for....
ANNOUNCEMENT: OPEN CHALLENGE TO ANY AND ALL GATEKEEPERS – WE CHALLENGE YOU TO DEBATE THE MERITS OF A PEOPLE'S BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT WITH US - THE MEMBER(S) OF THIS POLITICAL MOVEMENT - THE PEOPLE'S BRANCH. (YOU KNOW WHERE TO FIND US -www.ThePeoplesBranch.org)....
Did you hear that? GATEKEEPERS - What's your response? Why do GATEKEEPERS always refuse open debate with this political movement? Why would any GATEKEEPER have a problem bringing this political movement to their followers and the masses? What part of the people's ability to participate directly in their government thereby creating an incorruptible Checks and Balances upon governmental wrongs - atrocities and corruption - DON'T YOU GET?...
GATEKEEPERS can't name one issue or one problem that a People's Branch would make worse! Yet, we can name any number of issues and problems that a People's Branch will make better, improve and/or solve for WE THE PEOPLE!
Why not advocate for a People's Branch of government and let all the GATEKEEPERS you follow know that you want them to openly debate the merits of a People's Branch to Check and Balance government?...................

According to the RBI website, 91-day treasury bills were quoting at 8.52 percent while the 364-day bill was trading at 8.89 percent on mid-June 2014. So why are yields still high? Where are the yields headed? What should you, as a bond investor, do? Here are the answers.

Bonding well with the right bonds

Stocks and bonds, money, fixed income, RBI, investment, foreign institutional investors, FIIs, Reserve Bank of India
What should bond investors do while buying bond at the current high yields? Here’s the lowdown to the right strategy
As we go to push the state of affairs remains far from rosy in the bond market. Yields are high while price are falling. The yield on the 10-year benchmark government security (G-sec) is 8.64 percent, down 35-basis points (bps) from the 9 percent, mark it breached in November 2013. The situation was very bad last year as there were fears about the US quantitative easing, which led to foreign institutional investors (FIIs)selling off in the Indian debt market. This led to a fall in the Indian rupee, and the Reserve Bank of Indiahad to take liquidity tightening measures. Naturally, yields touched peaks. Things are better this year with receding fears of the impact of the phased withdrawal of quantitative easing and better liquidity in the market. Put into this the detail that inflation has eased a bit this year. But yields are still sitting pretty. Even short-term yields seem high.
According to the RBI website, 91-day treasury bills were quoting at 8.52 percent while the 364-day bill was trading at 8.89 percent on mid-June 2014. So why are yields still high? Where are the yields headed? What should you, as a bond investor, do? Here are the answers.
There are two key reasons why yields are still high. First is the inflation numbers. Inflation, both wholesale price index and consumer price index (WPI/CPI), have come down but stayed above comfort level. Inflation figures for May 2014, which came out in mid-June, showed that WPI inflation was 9.5 percent, up from 8.64 percent in April. This was despite the fact that CPI was recorded at a three-month low of 8.2 percent. This scenario of higher WPI might continue in the near term. Says Aditi Nayar, senior economist, ICRA, “Persistence of the go up in prices of crude oil and the Indian rupee’s weakness in the continuing month could nourish through to advanced core inflation going ahead.” The possibility of poor monsoons just makes things worse. The Indian weather department has predicted that the rainfall between June and September this year would be lower than average. This is likely to affect summer crops such as rice, corn and cotton, sending price upwards. So, food inflation might remain high if food supply is not managed properly, leading to nil possibility of cut in interest rates. Says Avnish Jain, head fixed income, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund, “RBI may remain on hold for some time as it closely watches the trajectory of inflation over the next few months.” All this would keep long-term yield on the higher side in the near future. Says Jain, “Expect the 10-year yield to remain at 8.4-8.80 per cent with a downward bias, till the budget is announced.”
The second season for high yields is that RBI is not buying bonds from the market like it did earlier trough open market operations (OMO). Says Rakesh Goyal, senior vice president, Bonanza Portfolio, “RBI did not announce any OMO even though they were widely expected by the market.  This has made the yields to harden.” RBI usually announces OMO worth over Rs.1,00,000 crore every year. In 212-13, it did not even announce half of that amount. Instead, to tackle the rupees, RBI has been selling bonds through OMO. During the first week June 2014, RBI sold over Rs.2500 crores worth of bonds. There are doubts that this strength lead to lower bond prices. Also banks are cautious when buying bonds from the market as they had suffered huge losses on their bond portfolio due to the supply is huge. Therefore, yields are high due to the demand-supply mismatch.
The question that arises is – what would happen to bond yields in the medium term? They are expected to moderate and then fall in the next one year. Rahul Goswami says, fixed income CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC, “Bond yields are probable to stay range-bound, with a downward prejudice in the medium term. Fiscal consolidation, continued step up in current account and a moderating CPI could provide RBI the space for monetary easing and lowering interest rates.” Inflation is expected to moderate by next year. Indranil Pan says, Kotak Mahindra Bank’s chief economist, , “We see an almost nil probability of any rate increases by the RBI through this fiscal, and expect the next change in the key interest rate to be on the lower side.” So, long-term yield would start moderating as inflation fears go down. Though short-term yields have already started moderating, further downside cannot be ruled out. Says Jain, “Short-term rates may continue to drift downwards, as liquidity remain easy.” Adds Dhawal Dalal, head-fixed income, DSP Blackrock Investment Managers, “Technically, short-term yields would fall much faster than long-term yields, making the yield curve steeper.”
This being the scenario, what are the bond investments you should look at? Given the stability gained in bond yields, it is best to increase the duration of your FI portfolio. Says Dalal, “Those who have been in the shorter end of the yield curve should start taking stock of their portfolio and should look at increasing its average maturity.” New bond investors can also procure bonds from the secondary market available at attractive yields or discounted face value. These include both government and corporate bonds. As long as long-term yields remain high in the near term, it is prudent to lock into them before they start falling. Says Dalal, “Once yields start falling in a couple of years, one could make good profits from the price appreciation in bonds.”

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Dollar Broadly Lower On Profit Taking/ RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. market strategist Jonathan Golub joined the SuperBull Club today. Golub says Years Left to Go in S&P 500 Bull Market. The U.S. Dollar Index is moving higher. The euro fell on the Greek parliament's vote and the German parliament's vote for a new deal, but the details won't be known for maybe a month. Greece can still be kicked out of the euro if the talks fail. If talks don't fail, the euro probably heads lower as the true cost of the bailout becomes known. If the euro breaks the March lows, it's on to parity and beyond. The Canadian dollar broke lower versus the dollar with the Canadian central bank's surprise cut this week; it is at a major resistance level. The Australian dollar is at a new post-2009 low.

Dollar Broadly Lower On Profit Taking


Wednesday, July 22, 2015 9:33 AM EDT
Profit taking cut into the US Dollar’s recent gains, driving it to its largest drop this month. The fall came despite widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve is possibly on the brink of a rate hike. Analysts are expressing some concerns that the Dollar rally may be over, and that the EUR/USD pair may not even approach parity as had been anticipated. One currency strategist in London said that the greenback’s momentum had finally ebbed.
As reported at 11:16 am (BDT) in London, the EUR/USD was trading lower at $1.0931, a loss of 0.8%; the pair was trading within a relatively tight band with $1.0924 at the low end and $1.0967 at the top. The USD/JPY was also lower at 123.7395 Yen, down 0.10%, nearly at the mid-point of today’s trading band. The US Dollar Index, used as a gauge of the greenback’s relative strength, was lower at 97.312 .DXY, slipping from Tuesday’s 3-month peak at 98.151 .DXY.

Wall Street Woes Impact Greenback

Many attribute the Dollar’s broad declines to disappointing earnings reports from United Technologies and IBM. In fact, all of the major indices closed lower yesterday which sent investors over to the US bond market which, ultimately, put the US Dollar under pressure.
US Dollar Lower

Why Did China Announce Its Gold Reserves? Yuan Depreciation Pressure

China did as I expected. They waited until the currency was under serious depreciation threat to announce their gold reserves.

ZH: China Increases Gold Holdings By 57% "In One Month" In First Official Update Since 2009
Well, the long awaited moment has finally arrived and this morning, after a 6 year delay when, China finally admitted that it had been misrepresenting its gold holdings for a very long time, when it announced that its gold holdings had increased from 38.89 million to 53.31 million troy ounces, a 57% increase "in one month."
I doubt this is the whole amount, but it is the official number for now.

Here's the 12-month change in forex reserves against the 12-month change in CNY/USD. Notice a pattern? This is one big reason why I've expected yuan depreciation the past few years: it happens every time when forex reserve growth drops and it would've happened in 2008 of China hadn't re-pegged to USD.


I've written on yuan depreciation for several years. Some posts:

PBOC Propping Up Yuan Ahead of SDR Inclusion.
China May Pay A High Price For SDR Push
The Informational Power of the Offshore Yuan Exchange Rate

The U.S. Dollar Index is moving higher. The euro fell on the Greek parliament's vote and the German parliament's vote for a new deal, but the details won't be known for maybe a month. Greece can still be kicked out of the euro if the talks fail. If talks don't fail, the euro probably heads lower as the true cost of the bailout becomes known. If the euro breaks the March lows, it's on to parity and beyond. The Canadian dollar broke lower versus the dollar with the Canadian central bank's surprise cut this week; it is at a major resistance level. The Australian dollar is at a new post-2009 low. Emerging market currencies are near their 5 year lows and the Asian Dollar Index is on the verge of breaking down.

SuperBull Club: RBC Ups Morgan Stanley, Says Bull Market to Continue 6 Years; Sobering Alternative View from GMO


SuperBull Club

RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. market strategist Jonathan Golub joined the SuperBull Club today. Golub says Years Left to Go in S&P 500 Bull Market.
 The U.S. economy’s slow recovery may extend another six years, potentially doubling the duration of the bull market in equities, according to RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. market strategist Jonathan Golub.

Bull markets tend to continue until an economic cycle runs out, usually after about seven years, Golub said in an interview with Bob Moon on Bloomberg Radio. Given the pace of the current economic expansion, he said the cycle could last 12 years or longer, providing investors with reason to continue buying stocks.

“We’re going to see a lot more upside to the stock market,” Golub said. “This is going to go on for long enough that many Americans are going to be able to participate in the run higher.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has more than tripled during the current bull run, which at 76 months is the second longest in the past 60 years.

He forecasts the benchmark index will end the year at 2,325, the fourth-most bullish forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 21 strategists.
Upping Morgan Stanley's 5-Year Prediction

Gulub upped the forecast of Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist.

On Monday, Parker stated his belief: Another 5 Years to Bull Market.

I commented "The bulls are attempting to outdo each other as often happens at or near market tops. But who's to say this is a top? Why stop with a 5-year rally? Why not 10 or 20 years? Why not forever? There's plenty of room for more optimism, and this bull market won't end until we see every ounce of it."

It seems fitting that it took only one day for RBC to up the forecast of Morgan Stanley. Surely, someone can outdo six more years.

SuperBulls, it's time to strut your stuff.

Sobering Alternative View from GMO

In contrast, to the SuperBulls, I present the 7-Year Real Return Forecast of GMO.

image: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj55-PIDBJ_Eb306ZOj8BZxlpDAlPjXr3B-WV7fWC_MKRhSV_SY7zyUglMSEqlJ5jElUl8uecQxTwhThoUtnFIe6fpSDeuSsR3U0-J6FE7nFFkB7GzSsZsJhaDv2SfEKaG3NQOF9MkQZuY/s400/GMO+7-Year+2015-07.png


*The chart represents real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward‐looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and GMO assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward‐looking statements. Forward‐looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. U.S. inflation is assumed to mean revert to long‐term inflation of 2.2% over 15 years.

Rain on the SuperBull Party

Note that GMO expects negative real returns in US stocks, on average, for a full seven years.

I hate to ruin a SuperBull party with forecasts that have been historically among the best in the world, but so be it.

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/07/superbull-club-rbc-ups-morgan-stanley.html#EkwXUtQ1vQMEWPxj.99
Disclosure: None.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Martial LAw!"Jade helm 15 news

Twin-c Vanilla SPilla "Martial LAw!"Jade helm 15 news The conspiracy theories grew wilder as the massive military exercise grew closer: food riots and martial law were coming to the United States, some said.


Dissidents would be assassinated, Wal-Marts turned into prison camps, foreign troops brought in to help.

Then the governor of Texas lent credence to the paranoia by ordering the state's National Guard to monitor a weekslong special operations training exercise called Jade Helm 15 involving 1,200 troops and seven states.

Some people reportedly buried their guns so government troops couldn't take them away. Others stockpiled ammunition and supplies.

A group called "Counter Jade Helm" helped organize quasi-militias to keep track of troop movements.

Jade Helm began last week not with a bang, but a whimper.

Bastrop, Texas -- the scene of a rowdy public meeting where people held up signs declaring "no Gestapo in Bastropo" and wore t-shirts with the words "come and take it" under a drawing of an automatic rifle -- was eerily calm on the third day of the exercise.

Nobody seemed to have seen any of the troops, or the out-of-town conspiracy theorists who vowed to watch their every move.

"We haven't gotten a single call," said Steve Adcock, chief of police in the town of about 7,000.

"We thought that there might be something, but nothing's occurred."

Local officials and some residents resent the attention the protests have drawn.

Bastrop is just a few miles from Camp Swift, a National Guard storage and training facility.

People who live here are strong supporters of the military, Adcock said. He didn't recognize any of the people who angrily challenged an Army colonel at April's rowdy public meeting.

"A lot of the conspiracy stuff is not local people," Adcock told AFP.

"It's making us look really bad."

Kay Rogers, a Bastrop lawyer, said a small minority of local citizens supported the protests.

"If you talk to 10 people about it, only one of them will even raise an eyebrow," she said. "We have a bunch of fringe elements in the county and they squawk pretty loud."

- 'Re-education camps' -

But while the wildest theories like how the government is building re-education camps for Christians, libertarians and other "enemies of the state" may seem outlandish, the underlying fear is widespread.

Some 60 percent of Americans see the government as a "threat to individual liberty," according to a poll conducted by Rasmussen in May.

Two thirds of respondents said they were concerned the government will use military training operations "to impose greater control over the states" yet, oddly, only 16 percent opposed having these exercises in their state.

The Army spent months trying to reassure people that the public would experience "little disruption" to their normal lives aside from "a slight increase in vehicle traffic and the limited use of military aircraft and its associated noise."

Lieutenant Colonel Mark Lastoria got visibly flustered after the lengthy Bastrop meeting erupted in applause when he was called a liar.

"It is not a preparation for martial law," he said with a sigh audible on a video of the meeting.

"Some people really, truly want to make this something it's not. All we want to do is make sure our guys are trained for combat overseas."

Efforts to create a realistic exercise by having some troops "conduct suspicious activity" while dressed as civilians -- and a map that labeled Texas and Utah as "hostile territory" -- played into the fears of people convinced the government is out to get them.

"This is by far the greatest public conditioning exercise in American history," Gary Franchi of the online Next News Network ominously warned his viewers.

"US military coordinating with local law enforcement and elements of the willing public will be conducting clandestine activities carrying weapons under aircraft cover at night wearing arm bands with a special insignia."

Martial law may not happen this summer, Franchi intoned. But when the times comes: "Troops will be ready and trained to take over your town."

Friday, July 10, 2015

THE NEWEST PROFIT OPPORTUNITY: A CHINESE MELTDOWN on a big drop in Chinese stocks by buying the ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 50 (NYSE: FXP). This ETF targets twice the inverse (-2X) of the daily performance of the FTSE China 50 Index.


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Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Porter's One-Time-Only Offer Closing

Tomorrow, we're closing Porter's risk-free offer to learn his Alpha secret — a way to make as much as 300% more than others, on the exact same stocks. If you haven't yet seen it, this is your last chance, before the price almost doubles. Click here.

Eric Fry, ducking from the bombs bursting in air, reports...

The Fourth of July weekend produced no shortage of financial fireworks...

Starting with the Chinese government's new campaign to prop up its plummeting stock markets... and ending with the defiant Greek vote to bury its soaring debt load.

Even though the crashing Chinese stock markets have nothing to do with the unfolding Greek drama, both events are combining to roil the world's financial markets. Chinese and Greek stocks were both down about 20% during the last couple of weeks. Fanning out from there, most European stock markets have dropped about 9%, while U.S. stocks are down about 3%.

The modest sell-offs in Europe and the U.S. would not bear mentioning if not for the fact that any minus sign has become front-page news. U.S. stocks have been climbing so "predictably" for so long that when they fall even a little, it's shocking.

Generally speaking, most global stock markets have been as placid and serene as a small pond. But now that China and Greece are both hurling boulders into the pond from opposite shores, the water is splashing everywhere.

Perhaps the ripples of volatility will subside as quickly as they appeared... but we doubt it. As we anticipated in the May 23, 2015, edition of The Non-Dollar Report, "Greed Isn't Always Good," this new phase of heightened volatility seems likely to hang around for a while.

At times like these, investors usually choose to reduce their stock holdings for fear that stocks will continue falling... or increase their holdings, believing the sell-off to be a short-term dip.

But there's a third option: Avoid the volatility altogether by stepping outside the stock market with a portion of your investment capital.

Avoid the volatility by investing in a vehicle that provides large potential upside... but without the risk of losing any of your invested capital. That's exactly the sort of opportunity being offered by our friends at EverBank. [For the sake of full disclosure, we have a longstanding relationship with EverBank in which we receive compensation to market their products.]

EverBank is offering a new five-year Certificate of Deposit (CD) it calls the "MarketSafe® Power MetalsSM CD."

"We've combined the power of gold, silver and copper in our latest MarketSafe CD," EverBank explains. "You'll have the potential to earn an upside payment capped at 45% if the metals gain, and if they decrease, you're totally covered with 100% protection of your deposited principal. Keep in mind, returns are based on CD performance - no annual percentage yield or periodic rate of interest is paid on the CD."

To check out all the details and important disclosures about this new five-year MarketSafe® Power MetalsSM CD, click here:

THE ELEMENTS OF POWER

Now, let's move on to today's featured essay by Sean Brodrick, The Oxford Club's resident natural resources expert. When last we heard from Sean two weeks ago, he predicted the oil price would soon be tumbling toward $50 a barrel.

Since Sean issued that prediction, the oil price has plummeted from $62 to nearly $52, which means that Sean's prediction was pretty darn prescient. [You can check out that entire Non-Dollar Report column here: "A Race to The Bottom in the Oil Price War."]

Now today, Sean turns his clairvoyant powers to the Chinese stock market... and once again, he foresees a big move to the downside. Read on...


The Newest Profit Opportunity: A Chinese Meltdown



While most investors have become obsessed with events in Greece, China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has gone through more mood swings than a Lifetime Original movie... and the worst may be yet to come. So get out your handkerchiefs!

The good news is, there are ways for savvy investors to profit.

After hitting a peak in mid-June, the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite indexes have both tumbled nearly 30%. This trouble comes after a rip-roaring year. China's stock market had risen 140% in just one year's time.

But the last three weeks have seen wild swings up and down... mostly down. It's been like we're watching the world's biggest penny stock drink too much Red Bull. And it's been doubly stomach-churning for China's 200 million investors. Compare that to roughly 121 million investors in the U.S.

For added perspective, there are now more investors in China than there are members of the Communist Party. The China Securities Depository and Clearing Co. says there are more than 90 million individual investors in that country. Compare that to 87.8 million members of the Communist Party.

But I think that number is understated. If you total the number of people with access to a brokerage account in Hong Kong and the mainland, it's closing in on 200 million people.

Capitalism Trumps Communism

Now, let's add in the fact that most Chinese are new investors. BNP Paribas estimated that about 170,000 new stock trading accounts were being opened each business day in China at one point this year, more than 10 times the average for 2014. In fact, 3.3 million Chinese opened brokerage accounts in just one week in April.

A Bull Market in Speculation

And the Chinese love to trade. A whopping 81% of retail investors in China trade at least once a month, according to a State Street survey published earlier this year. That's the highest of any nation. Just 53% of Americans and 32% of French investors trade monthly or more often.

So we have an extremely volatile market jammed with new investors who like to trade a lot. Can you see how these are the ingredients for a potential meltdown?

Now let's throw in the fact that Chinese brokerage firms have extended as much as 4 trillion yuan ($645 billion) of margin finance to investors.

No Margin for Error

Another 1.7 trillion yuan ($270 billion) may have flowed into stock market investment from wealth management products, online lending sites and other sources, according to Bloomberg.

All this margin debt and "hot money" has produced a bubbling stew of instability. And the resulting risks - both inside China and outside China - are particularly large because of the sheer size of the Chinese stock markets.

The Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock markets have a combined market cap of roughly $11 trillion. That makes China No. 2 in the world behind the $24 trillion market cap of the U.S. stock markets, but well ahead of No. 3 Japan's $5 trillion market cap.

Now let's stir the pot some more.
  • The amount of margin debt has doubled since the start of the year.
  • A Chinese state auditor found that more than a dozen state-owned companies falsified their records to seem healthier. And some of these are big companies, including State Grid Corp., COSCO Group and China Southern Power Grid Co.
  • The official in charge of IPOs and share offerings in the Chinese stock markets, Li Zhiling, was carted off to jail for corruption last month.
Yeah, I'd say that the stew is ready to bubble over.

These are scary times. But let's look at the good side of the downside...

Speculative investors can place their bets
To be sure, this ETF is speculative and it definitely would not be suitable for the faint of heart. Although its price quickly doubled during the market sell-off of 2008, its price has plummeted 64% during the last two years.

But if China is really about to see the silk hit the fan, ProShares UltraShort could be a good way to make a lot of money in a hurry.

Short the Next Bounce?

But investors who are tempted to bet that Chinese stocks will resume falling should be aware that the Chinese government is doing its best to soothe frayed nerves in the market. Here's a list of just some of the things the government and its allies are doing to prop up the market.
  • A sudden moratorium has been imposed on new share issuance, with dozens of firms scrapping their IPO plans.
  • Top brokerages in China pledged that they will invest at least $19 billion into stocks. The government is backing this "market stabilization fund."
  • Sixty-nine Chinese mutual funds have said they would also buy stocks, though they did not say how much money they will put to work.
China's two major stock exchanges plan to lower securities transaction fees by 30% starting in August in a bid to lure more investors into the market.

And here's one more "market stabilization" maneuver: About 200 Chinese stocks halted trading after the close on Monday. This makes a total of 745 Chinese stocks that have suspended trading altogether. That's 26% of listed firms on mainland exchanges with $1.4 trillion in market cap.

I guess that's one way to stop the market from going down. Forbid your stocks from being traded.

Now, maybe this Chinese version of a "plunge protection team" will get the job done. In fact, Hong Rong, a finance expert at Shanghai DZH Limited, wrote on July 5 in a widely forwarded post that government officials "are determined to save the market and take effective measures. And they have basically already blocked the possibility of a continued slump next week."

And the Asset Management Association of China, a state-run body, joined the chorus of soothing official commentary heard in recent days, saying that falling prices presented a valuable buying opportunity for "rational investors."

China's Communist Party also chimed in, "Rainbows always appear after rainy days."

Well, sure... but you can also drown in a flood while waiting for a rainbow. Furthermore, bullish government pronouncements and market-rigging operations rarely produce a true buying opportunity. To the contrary, they usually produce short-term bounces that make for good selling opportunities.

For a few days, the Chinese government may be able to create a bounce in their stock markets, but it will likely not be able to create an enduring bull market.

So if you'd like to speculate that the sell-off in China has more to go, ProShares UltraShort might be your best bet.

All the best,

Sean Brodrick
For The Non-Dollar Report


Social Security's "Final Deathblow"?

A coming $91 trillion market shock - lasting just three minutes - could gut our Social Security system once and for all. If you're at or near retirement age, you need to know what's coming. And there's still time to prepare. Here's the shocking truth, from America's most conservative income investor... including his recommendations for surviving the possible crisis.

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